Himachal Pradesh is witnessing a close fight between the Congress and the BJP, various exit polls said on Tuesday, after the second phase of polling in Gujarat officially ended.
In Himachal Pradesh, exit polls predicted 24-41 seats for the BJP and 20-40 for the Congress. The majority mark is 35 seats.
But when a saffron wave is being predicted in Gujarat, why are exit polls predicting an ‘unpredictable’ picture for the hill state? News18 explains:
First, what did the exit polls say about Himachal?
For Himachal Pradesh, Aaj Tak-Axis My India A close fight was predicted between the Congress and the BJP. It said that BJP will get 24-34 seats and Congress will get 30-40 seats.
News24-Today’s Chanakya also pointed to a cliffhanger in Himachal Pradesh, predicting 33 seats for both the BJP and the Congress, with a margin of plus-minus seven seats for both.
While ABP News C-Voter said that BJP is likely to get 33-41 seats and Congress 24-32, India TV predicted that BJP will get 35-40 seats, Congress 26-31 and AAP zero.
The X-Jan Ki Baat survey says BJP is likely to get 32-40 seats, Congress 27-34 and AAP zero in the hill state.
While Republic TV P-MARQ predicted BJP 34-39, Congress 28-33 and AAP 0-1, Times Now-ETG said the BJP was likely to get an average of 38 seats and the Congress 28.
According to Zee News-BARC, BJP was expected to get 35-40 seats in Himachal Pradesh while Congress was expected to get 20-25 seats.
Himachal’s ‘custom’ can give clarification
Despite the complex political equations we will discuss later in these questions, one of the most talked about trends of Himachal is its ‘anti-incumbency’ custom.
After 1985, the government has not been formed again in ‘Dev Bhoomi’.
Himachal Pradesh has been a swing state for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress for the past three decades. Both the parties have received around 40% of the stable vote share on a consistent basis (except in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the vote share of the Congress came down to 27 per cent). The results were always neck and neck.
While the massive voteshare disparity between the Congress and the BJP suggests a favorable saffron result, ‘past electoral trends of the BJP’s performance in the 2021 state bypolls suggest that Himachal could be an unpredictable outcome to predict. In 2021, by-elections will be held for three assembly seats: Arki, Fatehpur, and Jubbal-Kotkhai, as well as the Mandi Lok Sabha seat. Congress was in possession of all the four seats. In the 2021 Fatehpur, Arki and Jubbal-Kotkhai by-elections, BJP got 42, 24 and 54% votes respectively as compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Whereas, according to the report of India Today, Congress got 21, 26 and 3% votes in these assemblies.
Old Pension Scheme
The old pension scheme also became an election issue in the hill state. The Congress’s campaign promise to restore the old pension scheme has political analysts wondering whether the promise will hurt the BJP’s performance.
The Aam Aadmi Party also came together, promising to implement the OPS if voted to power. While the state’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did not make any commitments, it said it would proceed based on the report of a panel appointed by the Jai Ram Thakur-led government.
How are OPS and NPS different and why is it a pole plank?
Old Pension Scheme (OPS)
• Employees in OPS get 50 per cent of their last drawn basic pay and dearness allowance or their average earnings in the last ten months of service, whichever is higher. A Mint report states that the employee will have to fulfill a service requirement of ten years.
• Employees are not required to contribute to their pension under OPS. The guarantee of pension and family pension after retirement was an incentive to take up a government job. There was no pressure to build a retirement fund. Due to increasing life expectancy, OPS has become unaffordable for governments.
New Pension Scheme (NPS)
• Those employed by the government contribute 10% of their basic pay to their pension under NPS, while their employers contribute up to 14%. Private sector employees can also participate in NPS voluntarily, though some rules have been changed.
With NPS the subscriber has greater flexibility and a greater sense of control over his destiny. Irrespective of equity or debt, a professional pension fund manager can ensure better returns and a bigger retirement corpus. The Mint report further states that unlike defined benefit plans, NPS is a defined contribution plan. If you have no appetite for risk, the guaranteed payout feature in OPS is undeniably attractive.
Why oppose NPS?
The opposition can be explained by the points made in a recent letter shot by the Federation of Central Government Employees Unions to the Cabinet Secretary, which called it a disaster for old and retired employees.
According to the federation, a defense establishment officer, who recently retired after over 13 years of service, received only 15% of the assured pension he would have received under the OPS.
An officer with a basic pay of Rs 30,500 used to get a monthly pension of Rs 2,417 under NPS, while under OPS he used to get a pension of Rs 15,250.
Another officer with a base pay of Rs 34,300 gets a monthly pension of Rs 2,506 after over 15 years of service, while under the OPS he would have been entitled to a pension of Rs 17,150.
And why Himachal has special stake in this problem
There are about 2.5 lakh government employees in Himachal Pradesh. Another 1.90 lakh employees are now retired and getting pension. According to Newslaundry, despite the fact that only 55 lakh voters decide the fate of political parties, these active and retired government employees along with their dependents form a strong voter base.
Himachal New Pension Scheme Employees Association (NPSEA), an organization formed in 2015 to demand the return of OPS, has mobilized people on the ground and is raising awareness about the issue through its social media platforms. NPSEA general secretary Bharat Sharma said that the restoration of OPS in the hill state is a major political issue.
Apple farming is also an issue
Gardeners say rising input costs due to high prices of fertilisers, pesticides and little government support have made apple farming unprofitable. The Kullu region, whose economy is dependent on tourism and horticulture, has four assembly seats namely Manali, Kullu Sadar, Banjar and Ani.
Naresh Chowdhary, an apple grower from Manali said, “Apple growers here are unhappy as the rates have dropped to 2012 and 2013 levels. This issue is going to affect the elections in all the four seats of this apple belt.
Apple growers here are also unhappy with the ruling BJP over the hike in GST on packaging and other input materials. “The carton rates were increased just before the apple marketing season, which affected our income,” said Chowdhary.
Durga Singh, another apple grower from Kullu, said that the ruling government had promised to open cold storage in the region, but did not fulfill it. “I think apple prices and falling income and GST on packaging material will affect BJP’s chances in the four seats here,” Singh said.
BJP’s strength is in women voters
The BJP has counted on the support of women voters and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reduce its losses in a state where every government so far has claimed anti-incumbency. Given his continued popularity in the state, the Prime Minister in Himachali cap is displayed prominently on every BJP billboard in the state.
Despite being troubled by the price rise, News18 learned that women in Himachal Pradesh are not giving up on the BJP. According to two women buying vegetables in Solan, BJP has done a lot for women. “We do not believe in this promise of depositing money in our bank account” (Rs 1,500 promised by Congress to women). Parties keep making false promises. Our children want government jobs on the basis of their merit. Pension is no longer available. “BJP should fix it,” argue the women.
With inputs from PTI
read all latest explainer Here