New Delhi: The Economic Survey, which was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday, projected a growth rate of 8 – 8.5 per cent in 2022-23. The survey document was presented ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget on February 1 (Tuesday).
The survey (2021–22) focuses on supply-side issues to improve the resilience of the economy. According to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Monday, the economic growth rate for the upcoming financial year starting April (FY23) is projected to be 8 per cent to 8.5 per cent, lower than the 9.2 per cent growth projected in the current year . ,
Advance estimates suggest that the GVA of the industry (including mining and construction) will grow by 11.8 per cent in 2021-22, after contracting 7 per cent in 2020-21.
This implies that overall economic activity has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. According to the survey, almost all indicators suggest that the economic impact of the second wave in Q1 was much less than that experienced during the complete lockdown phase in 2020-21.
Agriculture and allied sectors are expected to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2021-22 after a growth of 3.6 per cent in the previous year. Advance estimates suggest that the GVA of the industry (including mining and construction) will grow by 11.8 per cent in 2021-22, after contracting 7 per cent in 2020-21. The sector is expected to grow at 8.2 per cent this fiscal after a contraction of 8.4 per cent last year.
Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, India’s balance of payments remained in surplus over the past two years. This allowed the Reserve Bank of India to accumulate foreign exchange reserves (they stood at $634 billion as on December 31, 2021). This is equivalent to 13.2 months of merchandise imports and is more than the country’s external debt. The combination of high foreign exchange reserves, sustained foreign direct investment and rising export earnings will provide a substantial buffer against potential global liquidity crunch in 2022-23.
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