Mumbai: Country’s current account deficit It is expected to reach a three-year high of 1.8 percent, or $43.81 billion, in FY12, against a surplus of 0.9 percent, or $23.91 billion, in FY12, a report on Thursday said.
According to an assessment by India Ratings, the current account deficit (CAD) widened to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22, as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, And was down in a big way. From $23.02 billion, or 2.74 percent, in Q3, a 13-quarter high.
The improvement in prime numbers is due to a significant improvement in export of goods In FY22, when it grew by 42.4 per cent as against negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
But exports could face significant headwinds from rising uncertainty and volatility in the global economy, primarily due to rising commodity prices, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine of crude, the report warned. , and pointed to a lower forecast of global growth by the WTO. (WTO) which sees the global economy to shrink by around 3 per cent in 2022, down from the earlier 4.7 per cent forecast.
The world trade body has projected import growth for India’s major exporting partners such as North America and Europe at 3.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively in 2022, down from 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively as earlier forecast.
However, higher oil prices will benefit oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, leading to higher real incomes, and thus, higher import demand which is expected to grow by 11.7 percent in 2022 from the earlier forecast of 8.7 percent.
On the other hand, India’s merchandise imports are expected to pick up in FY13 due to rising commodity prices and depreciating rupee.
The agency expects merchandise exports to be worth $112.5 billion, a growth of 17.7 per cent in the first quarter of FY23, up 85.7 per cent from the same quarter of the previous fiscal.
Merchandise imports grew by 44.1 percent to $120.9 billion during April-May 2022 and are expected to be $182.9 billion.
Further, the rupee is expected to average 77.1 against the US dollar in Q1, down 4.5 per cent over Q1 FY22.
Merchandise exports grew 29.2 percent to a record $116.8 billion in Q4 of FY12, 20.4 percent, despite the higher base effect of Q4 FY11.
Import volumes from top exporting partners such as the US and Europe grew 9.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively, in the fourth quarter. As a result, total exports exceeded the target of $400 billion, reaching a life-time high of $421.8 billion in FY22, up from $296.3 billion in FY21, an increase of 42.4 percent, as compared to FY2015. The negative was 7.5 percent.
FY23 so far has been encouraging as exports grew by 22.9 per cent in April-May. But if Ukraine’s war continues, which could lead to stalemates in the developed world and continued supply chain disruptions, exports could be hit, the report warned.
Major commodities such as petroleum products, iron and steel, aluminum and its products, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, sugar, motor vehicles and cotton yarn contributed about 72.2 per cent to the export growth, in the range of 14-158 per cent. is growing. Percentage in terms of value in Q4.
Gold imports fell 54 per cent in the fourth quarter after seven quarters as demand fell to the same level in the quarter due to the start of the third wave of the pandemic.
According to an assessment by India Ratings, the current account deficit (CAD) widened to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22, as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, And was down in a big way. From $23.02 billion, or 2.74 percent, in Q3, a 13-quarter high.
The improvement in prime numbers is due to a significant improvement in export of goods In FY22, when it grew by 42.4 per cent as against negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
But exports could face significant headwinds from rising uncertainty and volatility in the global economy, primarily due to rising commodity prices, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine of crude, the report warned. , and pointed to a lower forecast of global growth by the WTO. (WTO) which sees the global economy to shrink by around 3 per cent in 2022, down from the earlier 4.7 per cent forecast.
The world trade body has projected import growth for India’s major exporting partners such as North America and Europe at 3.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively in 2022, down from 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively as earlier forecast.
However, higher oil prices will benefit oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, leading to higher real incomes, and thus, higher import demand which is expected to grow by 11.7 percent in 2022 from the earlier forecast of 8.7 percent.
On the other hand, India’s merchandise imports are expected to pick up in FY13 due to rising commodity prices and depreciating rupee.
The agency expects merchandise exports to be worth $112.5 billion, a growth of 17.7 per cent in the first quarter of FY23, up 85.7 per cent from the same quarter of the previous fiscal.
Merchandise imports grew by 44.1 percent to $120.9 billion during April-May 2022 and are expected to be $182.9 billion.
Further, the rupee is expected to average 77.1 against the US dollar in Q1, down 4.5 per cent over Q1 FY22.
Merchandise exports grew 29.2 percent to a record $116.8 billion in Q4 of FY12, 20.4 percent, despite the higher base effect of Q4 FY11.
Import volumes from top exporting partners such as the US and Europe grew 9.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively, in the fourth quarter. As a result, total exports exceeded the target of $400 billion, reaching a life-time high of $421.8 billion in FY22, up from $296.3 billion in FY21, an increase of 42.4 percent, as compared to FY2015. The negative was 7.5 percent.
FY23 so far has been encouraging as exports grew by 22.9 per cent in April-May. But if Ukraine’s war continues, which could lead to stalemates in the developed world and continued supply chain disruptions, exports could be hit, the report warned.
Major commodities such as petroleum products, iron and steel, aluminum and its products, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, sugar, motor vehicles and cotton yarn contributed about 72.2 per cent to the export growth, in the range of 14-158 per cent. is growing. Percentage in terms of value in Q4.
Gold imports fell 54 per cent in the fourth quarter after seven quarters as demand fell to the same level in the quarter due to the start of the third wave of the pandemic.