China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone nearly doubled in 2022, with an increase in the number of fighter jets and bombers as Beijing stepped up threats to the island democracy.
Self-ruled Taiwan remains under constant threat of invasion. Communist Party rulers claim the island as part of China’s territory and have vowed to one day seize it.
Relations have been icy for years under Xi Jinping, China’s most hardline leader in a generation.
But 2022 saw further decline, as Xi’s forces intruded in opposition to a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August, triggering the biggest war game in decades.
China sent 1,727 aircraft to Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates issued by Taipei’s Defense Ministry.
This is compared with about 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.
The number of fighter jets doubled from 538 to 1,241 in 2021, while intrusions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, rose from 60 to 101.
Last year also saw the first incursions by drone, with all 71 reported arrivals by Taiwan’s military following Pelosi’s visit.
Military analysts say China has used the intrusion to probe Taiwan’s defenses, deplete its aging air force and ratchet up Western support for Taipei, especially the United States. .
Lee Hsi-min, former chief of Taiwan’s General Staff, said, “They want to show their determination, their will, and force the United States: Don’t get too close to your red lines, don’t cross your red lines.” AFP.
Strategic ambiguity?
The United States diplomatically recognizes China over Taiwan, but remains Taipei’s most important ally.
It opposes any forcible change in Taiwan’s status and is bound by an act of Congress to supply the island with the means to defend itself.
Support for Taiwan is a rare issue of bipartisan consensus in Washington and there is growing concern about whether China could resort to a military solution, a fear heightened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Washington has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan, deliberately not making any firm commitments on whether it will come to its rescue.
That strategy was intended to make Beijing think twice about the cost of any invasion and prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence.
US President Joe Biden’s mood is turning sour on the issue of strategic ambiguity.
He has repeatedly said that the US military would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a Chinese aggression, only for the White House to backtrack from his comments.
China has used the incursions of warplanes to express its displeasure against specific incidents.
It dispatched 71 warplanes to conduct “strike exercises” on 25 December in response to what it described as “increasing collusion and provocation” by Washington and Taipei.
This came days after Biden signed up to $10 billion in military aid to Taiwan.
Chinese warplanes flew a record 440 sorties in August, the same month Pelosi became the highest-ranking US lawmaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years.
‘grey-zone’ stress
The Taipei-based political and military analyst said, “The more frequent sorties are worrisome and force the Taiwan side to be constantly on the alert to ensure that the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) can use them as cover for strikes against Taiwan.” Do not use as J Michael Cole told AFP.
However, he also said that the increase in incursions “does not indicate that (China) is prepared to use force against Taiwan at an earlier date – at least not an invasion scenario, which would require months of mobilisation”. would be required”.
Several nations maintain air defense identification zones, including the United States, Canada, South Korea, Japan, and China, which are not identical to a country’s airspace.
Instead they cover a much wider area in which any foreign aircraft is expected to declare itself to local aviation authorities.
Analysts say China’s growing scrutiny of Taiwan’s defense sector is part of a broader “grey-zone” strategy to keep pressure on the island.
“The PRC (People’s Republic of China) is launching a war on Taiwan’s military,” said Richard Hu, deputy director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University.
While China intends to gather vital intelligence and “preparedness parameters” such as how quickly and from where Taiwan intercepts occur, an invasion is an extremely risky and costly endeavor.
The mountainous island would be a formidable challenge for any army to conquer.
General Hu, a retired army major, said, “In terms of taking Taiwan by force, the PRC still faces many important challenges, such as sending hundreds of thousands of troops across the Taiwan Strait.”
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(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed)