MUMBAI: Business activity rose for the second consecutive week, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 disruption in March 2020, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday.
NS Nomura India Business Resumption Index (artek), which measures activity on a weekly basis with a basis for pre-pandemic levels, rose to 101.2 for the week ended August 15 from 99.6 last week.
This is the first time that the activity has breached the pre-pandemic base. The index level declined sharply in April last year immediately after the national lockdown and reached very close to the pre-pandemic levels of March 2020. However, the second wave and the ensuing local lockdown hit it again until it increased after the infection subsided.
“The recovery from the second wave has been very rapid: it took almost 10 months for NIBRI to crawl back towards the 100 mark after the first wave of Covid-19, but less than three months to cross 100 after the second wave. ” Brokerage said.
The continued growth in NIBRI during July-August suggests a strong sequential rebound is likely in the third quarter, warning that the economy is not yet out of the pandemic jungle.
It expects GDP growth to contract at 4.3 percent sequentially in the June quarter, but 29.4 percent year-on-year. In 2021-22, GDP is expected to grow at 10.4 per cent in real terms, as against 7.3 per cent in the previous year.
During the week under review, Google Mobility indicators continued their uptrend with Workplace and Retail and Recreation indices increasing by 1.7 percentage points (pp) and 3.4 pp respectively, while Apple The driving index dropped 0.8 pp.
Electricity demand grew by 5.7 percent over the previous week, while the labor participation rate declined from 41.5 percent to 40.4 percent.
NS Nomura India Business Resumption Index (artek), which measures activity on a weekly basis with a basis for pre-pandemic levels, rose to 101.2 for the week ended August 15 from 99.6 last week.
This is the first time that the activity has breached the pre-pandemic base. The index level declined sharply in April last year immediately after the national lockdown and reached very close to the pre-pandemic levels of March 2020. However, the second wave and the ensuing local lockdown hit it again until it increased after the infection subsided.
“The recovery from the second wave has been very rapid: it took almost 10 months for NIBRI to crawl back towards the 100 mark after the first wave of Covid-19, but less than three months to cross 100 after the second wave. ” Brokerage said.
The continued growth in NIBRI during July-August suggests a strong sequential rebound is likely in the third quarter, warning that the economy is not yet out of the pandemic jungle.
It expects GDP growth to contract at 4.3 percent sequentially in the June quarter, but 29.4 percent year-on-year. In 2021-22, GDP is expected to grow at 10.4 per cent in real terms, as against 7.3 per cent in the previous year.
During the week under review, Google Mobility indicators continued their uptrend with Workplace and Retail and Recreation indices increasing by 1.7 percentage points (pp) and 3.4 pp respectively, while Apple The driving index dropped 0.8 pp.
Electricity demand grew by 5.7 percent over the previous week, while the labor participation rate declined from 41.5 percent to 40.4 percent.
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