Shivraj Singh Chouhan has cemented his position as chief minister in Madhya Pradesh and silenced his critics, with the chair of CM Jai Ram Thakur in Himachal now faltering after a massive defeat in party president JP Nadda’s home state. Is. Mamata Banerjee West Bengal is firmly on the BJP-demolition path, and Himanta Biswa Sarma has proved that the BJP’s decision to elect him as Assam’s chief minister was the right one – these are the big messages from Tuesday’s 32 bypoll results.
Dane. loss in
Himachal Pradesh’s results for the BJP come as a warning sign ahead of state elections, which are a year away. Common political sense gives the ruling party an edge in the by-elections. But the Congress won three assembly seats as well as the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, which was won by Pratibha Singh, wife of late former chief minister Virbhadra Singh. This would be a loss as it is the home state of BJP chief Nadda and there is a clearly anti-incumbency wave against CM Jai Ram Thakur, who was earlier named as someone who could be ousted by the BJP before the elections. Thakur has now lost her job as people are said to have sympathy for Singh’s family after his death. Congress also got 49% vote share in the by-election.
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‘Mother’ persists
In Madhya Pradesh, however, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has put an end to all speculation about his future with the BJP’s victory in Khandwa Lok Sabha seat and two of the three assembly bypolls. Speculation was also rife about Chouhan’s name, which could be changed in the midst of changing CMs of BJP in Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Gujarat. However, it seems that the veteran chief minister has responded to his critics by putting all his might in campaigning for these by-elections and winning three seats. The Kamal Nath-led Congress, however, has not been out of the game in Madhya Pradesh as it got one seat and the vote share difference between the parties was just 2%. The 2023 election could be another high-voltage contest between Chouhan and Nath.
perfect choice
It seems that Himanta Biswa Sarma and Ashok Gehlot have proved to their respective parties that they were the right choice as CM. While the BJP alliance won all the five bypoll seats in Assam, the Congress won both the bypolls in Rajasthan and, in fact, pushed the BJP to third place in both the seats in the state. The deeply divided BJP in Rajasthan was actually reduced to a mere 19% vote share in the elections, raising questions about whether the party has the leadership to challenge the Congress in 2023. In Assam, the Congress finds the shoe on the other foot. It fell to just 16% vote share in the by-elections, sparking a split within the party after the state’s defeat. Sarma and Gehlot have clearly consolidated their position as CMs.
Mamata in command
The BJP’s demolition has continued in West Bengal since its defeat in the assembly elections held earlier this year. The opposition party lost all four bypoll seats and, in fact, lost its bail in three, securing just 14.5% of the votes in all, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) got around 75% of the votes. This is a major setback for the BJP as it faced defeat in Bhawanipur, including Mamata’s victory in the by-polls held a month ago and exodus of party leaders to the TMC. The BJP is staring at a possible loss of winning 18 of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 parliamentary elections unless there is an immediate intervention by top officials to rejuvenate the cadre here. With her stronghold secured, Mamata Banerjee is now looking at other national borders.
swim or drown together
The defeat in the bypolls in both seats for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress in Bihar shows that the parties need to stick together to counter the might of the ruling National Democratic Alliance. The Congress, which insisted and staked the future of the alliance with the RJD by contesting two seats, eventually got only 3% of the total votes, less than Chirag Paswan’s new party and nearly one percentage point more than NOTA. The victory margin for the ruling Janata Dal (United) in Tarapur seat over RJD was 3,852 votes while Congress got 3,590 votes. Looking back, the statement of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad proved to be correct that these seats should be left for the Congress. The loss, however, is expected to increase tensions on the war path with Lalu Prasad’s family and his eldest son.
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other important messages
The BJP will also feel the brunt of the Congress’s defeat in the Hangal assembly seat in Karnataka, which is the bastion of new Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. The CM has said that the defeat is being taken very seriously, although the BJP has won the second by-election seat. In Haryana, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was able to retain the Ellenabad seat and the Congress here finished third behind the BJP and lost its bail despite vocal support to the ongoing peasant movement. In Telangana, the BJP is expected to win the Huzurabad seat over the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi, while the Shiv Sena has reasons to feel excited when it wins its first Lok Sabha seat outside Maharashtra in Dadar and Nagar Haveli.
However, bypolls in the past have not proved to be the most accurate barometer of public mood before state or general elections. For example, the high prices of petrol and diesel have not hurt the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, which currently has the most expensive fuel in the country, while the issue has troubled the party in Himachal Pradesh. Parties, however, take quick lessons from bypolls, such as the BJP revising its course after the setback of Lok Sabha bypolls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh in 2018. In 2019, it won both the seats and despite the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in UP winning 65 of the state’s 80 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
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