At this critical point, what Quad chooses to do next is more important than ever. Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said that compared to its early roots under the George W. Bush administration, the Quad had evolved from “low-key political and economic dialogue” into a very important player in the Asia Pacific. Area. .
“The Quad is not an Asian NATO … but at the same time it is clearly moving towards a cooperative security approach,” Davis said.
battle of china
The Quad was initially proposed in 2007, but was put on hold for a decade until it was revived under former US President Donald Trump amid China’s rise as an economic and military superpower.
The diplomatic environment in Asia has changed markedly since the 2017 revival – and the Quad has gained more prominence.
Meanwhile, relations between Washington and Beijing, which deteriorated under Trump, have faltered under Biden as the US strengthens its diplomatic partnership in Asia with a view to controlling China.
Japan has also welcomed greater US involvement in this area. Japan has become more cautious of Beijing over the past year, after Chinese President Xi Jinping attempted to pursue a heated China policy in his early years as its leader.
Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said India is now the most cautious member of the Quad and how willing the group is to advance defense cooperation and oppose China may depend on Delhi. .
But writing in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs in early 2021, Amrita Jash, a research fellow at the Center for Land Warfare Studies in New Delhi, said India was still moving militarily closer to the US, with new and advanced military Includes exercises, weapons, weapons. Procurement and technology transfer.
Part of the collaboration includes improved tracking and targeting technology, Jaish said. “There is an imperative need for India to keep a close watch on Chinese (military) activities along the Himalayan border and to map China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean,” he said.
Glaser said another determinant was how far the Quad would be willing to go in opposition to Beijing.
“Another factor is China’s own behaviour. The more China threatens the interests of other countries, wants to threaten economic coercion… the more countries are willing to back down,” she said.
united on taiwan
Taiwan is likely to be one of the key points for discussion in Washington on Friday.
Glaser said he believed the August statement could include a reference to Taiwan at the Quad leaders’ meeting this week, an unusually strong move by the Indian government.
“I think it will be quite a wake-up call (for Beijing). They are hearing it from Australia and Japan but never from India.
According to Ben Scott, director of Australia’s Security and Rules-Based Order Project at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, a joint quad could help deter any further aggression by the Chinese government towards Taiwan.
However, he added that the specifics in any message will be important to avoid spiraling into potential collisions. “There’s always the risk of going too far and falling into provocation,” he said.
opportunity result
The Quad meeting may come at a fruitful moment for the US, Scott said – there has never been a better time for Washington to show that it is part of a broader, united community in Asia.
Scott said that while he believed the AUKUS agreement was a positive step forward for US diplomacy in Asia, it also presented a very “anglosphere” face for the region.
“It describes itself as a club of maritime democracies that automatically exclude most of Southeast Asia,” Scott said. “(and) the center of gravity for the (US-China) competition is in Southeast Asia.”
By being part of a larger cooperative agreement with Japan and India, Scott said the US could present a more diverse face to Southeast Asia, among other parts of the continent – one that focused not only on military prowess but also on economic and it is also political cooperation.
Scott said it is important for the US to use the Quad now to focus on “positive and inclusive” agreements in the Asia Pacific if it is going to effectively counter Beijing.
“If you want to win hearts and minds in the (Asia Pacific) region, the first priority is COVID and the second is greater macroeconomic stability and security,” he said.
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