Biden faces high-stakes test in call with Putin on Ukraine – Henry Klub

The call comes nearly six months after Biden met for the first time as president in Geneva, Switzerland, when he hoped to defuse tensions by finding areas where the US and Russia can cooperate, such as cyber security and strategic arms control. . Both individuals have a long history, and Biden has explicitly stated that he does not hold Putin in particularly high esteem.

After meeting with Putin in 2011, then-Vice President Biden said he looked into Putin’s eyes and declared: “I don’t think you have a soul.” During an interview in March, Biden called Putin a killer, adding that the Russian leader would “pay the price” for his efforts to undermine the 2020 US election. And although the June summit was cordial, the recent escalation of the Russian military suggests that the meeting did not produce the kind of “stable and predictable” relationship the US was hoping for.

Russia has now mobilized nearly 100,000 troops near the border, US Army Chief General James McConville said late last week, and has also prepared supply lines in the area such as medical units and fuel that will help in a drawn-out conflict. can do. can maintain, Sources told CNNRussia may be preparing to launch an offensive as early as next month with 175,000 troops located near Ukraine’s southern, western and northeastern borders, a US intelligence assessment found.

Officials report a “significant spike” in Russian disinformation actions, including declaring the Ukrainian government illegitimate, and US officials have also shared evidence with senior Ukrainian officials that Russia — through the FSB, Russia’s successor to the KGB. – is inside. Will provoke discontent against the administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, engaged in destabilizing the activities of Ukraine.

Senior administration officials say Biden – who had a portfolio of Ukraine as Barack Obama’s vice president and has made a half-dozen trips there – is realistic about what he can achieve with Putin directly.

But in Biden’s view, any conversation is better than silence, and he believes Putin responds directly and with force. As he sits down in the Situation Room of the White House on Tuesday to make a secure video call, he plans in detail how Russia will be punished if the invasion proceeds.

Those penalties include “substantial economic countermeasures”, which means “significant and serious economic damage on the Russian economy”, the senior official said in coordination with European allies.

In an exclusive interview with CNN’s Matthew Chance, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksey Reznikov urged Biden to stand firm against Moscow.

“If I may advise President Biden, I would like him to make it clear to Mr. Putin that there should be no red line from the Kremlin side. The red line is here in Ukraine and the civilized world will respond without hesitation.” , Reznikov said.

“The idea of ​​provoking Russia will not work,” he said.

Despite the military escalation, it is still unclear whether Putin has made the final decision to invade Ukraine, and some officials have speculated that the buildup could be a way out. Russia will take advantage of the concessions from the West. Putin is expected to give Biden a binding guarantee that will “protect us from any expansion of NATO in the east and the territories of neighboring countries, including Ukraine,” Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters last week. Threat to threat would exclude the deployment of weapon systems.

Asked about Russia’s demands for a binding pledge not to extend further east from NATO, the senior official said, “We don’t think the Red Line talk is helpful, and as the president has said, We are not going to act on it. That logic of accepting someone’s red lines.”

Meanwhile, many US officials believe that Russia is using the discussion about NATO encroachment as an excuse to attack Ukraine, knowing that Biden and other Western officials will not accept Putin’s demands. will not accept. ,

“Our concern is that Russia may make the grave mistake of attempting to restart operations it did back in 2014, when it gathered forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and falsely claimed it was instigated. ,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month, referring to Russia’s invasion of Crimea.

The official said Blinken spoke to Zelensky on Monday and that Biden would speak to Zelensky in the coming days and brief him on the call with Putin.

weigh the response

The US and its European and NATO allies are taking a number of measures to deter Russia’s aggression, including sending military advisers and new weapons to Ukraine. The senior official said the US is also taking steps to plan the deployment of additional US troops to Europe on the eastern side of NATO to help continue US support to allies.

“I think you can guess that in the event of an invasion, the need to reinforce the trust and assurance of our NATO allies and allies on our eastern side will be real. And the United States stands ready to provide that assurance. . Will,” this person said. “We are working through a prudent plan of what we would need to do in the event of such escalation and how we would need to ensure the safety of our NATO allies in that context.”

People familiar with the discussions said members of Putin’s inner circle and “aggressive” new sanctions on Russian energy producers are also being considered. The people said the new economic sanctions could target a variety of sectors, including energy producers, Russian banks and Russia’s sovereign debt. A senior US official told CNN that serious discussions are also underway about depriving Russian energy producers of debt markets if Ukraine is invaded.

Another senior US official said, ‘We have prepared a very aggressive package. The man said the US has warned Russia that if it attacks Ukraine, the US and Europe together will impose the worst economic sanctions on a country outside Iran and North Korea.

Sources said officials are also considering excluding Russia from the SWIFT international payment system if it should go ahead with the offensive, but that it would be a “nuclear” option.

For some Ukrainians, the possible measures are not enough. An adviser to Zelensky told CNN that imposing sanctions only after Russia’s invasion would be pointless, and that at least some of the penalties for Russia’s withdrawal should have been imposed in the past.

“Kiev is of the view that any possible sanctions against Putin’s aggression have already been implemented by Moscow and are close to zero resistance values,” the adviser said. “However, implementing stronger sanctions now – with roll back provisions built into them, should Russia take real steps to de-escalate – should have a chance to work.”

CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Zahra Ullah and Anna Chernova contributed to this report.