In the last two assembly elections, the Congress has done better than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in north Gujarat, with 32 seats on its account, and the opposition party will aim to retain its lead in the region in 2022 as well, with some of its Favorable factors.
The region will go to polls in the second phase on December 5 when the remaining 93 seats in the 182-member assembly will go to polls.
While the BJP faces rebellion in some pockets due to the arrest of dairy cooperative leader and former home minister Vipul Chowdhary and anger among the dominant OBC Chowdhary community is expected, local caste dynamics and selection of candidates will play a major role The final result is likely to play out, political analysts said.
Of the 32 assembly seats spread across the region’s six districts – Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Aravalli and Gandhinagar – the Congress had won 17 in both the 2012 and 2017 elections.
On the other hand, BJP emerged victorious in 15 and 14 assembly constituencies in 2012 and 2017 respectively. In the last elections, one seat (SC-reserved Vadgam) went to independent candidate Jignesh Mevani, who was supported by the Congress.
The opposition party has reposed faith in most of its sitting MLAs in the region and re-nominated 11 of them. At the same time, the BJP has fielded only six of its 14 sitting MLAs and has given a chance to new candidates in the rest of the constituencies.
Both the parties have fielded candidates from the Patidar and Koli communities keeping in mind the local caste dynamics.
Experts believe that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is unlikely to make much of a difference in north Gujarat, where Surat will see a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP, in contrast to the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s possible influence. Who will get Some seats in South Gujarat and in Saurashtra region.
“BJP achieved electoral victory in central and north Gujarat regions in 2002 elections (in the backdrop of post-Godhra communal riots). However, by 2012, the Congress regained the lost ground in north Gujarat and managed to retain its hold in the region five years later,” said political analyst Dilip Gohil.
According to analysts and social group members, the arrest of cooperative leader Vipul Chowdhary in a Rs 800-crore corruption case has rattled people in his community, which forms a significant chunk of the electorate in Banaskantha district and parts of Mehsana.
Chowdhary, former chairman of Dudhsagar Dairy, faces corruption charges during his tenure in the cooperative. Before the elections, there was talk of the former minister joining AAP, but it did not happen.
Mogaji Chowdhary, former vice-president of Dudhsagar Dairy, who is also associated with Arbuda Sena, a social organization of the Chowdhary community, said members of the social group would cast their votes as per their choice and no instructions had been issued to them. ,
“They will consider factors like candidates and local issues while voting, but there is anger among community members over the treatment meted out to Vipul Chowdhary,” said Mogaji Chowdhary.
“There is anger among the community about what happened to Vipul Chowdhary, but the Arbuda Sena has decided to remain apolitical,” he said.
The presence of the powerful OBC community is ubiquitous in North Gujarat.
“Local candidates will play a more important role than anything else. Community members will vote for local candidates regardless of which political party they represent. Mogaji Chowdhary stressed that we have not issued any instructions to the community on what to do and what not to do with regard to the election.
BJP is facing rebellion in some assembly seats like Deesa of Banaskantha. Voters are also not happy with the way BJP has handled Alpesh Thakor who left Congress.
The ruling party has fielded Thakor from the Gandhinagar South seat. In 2019, he lost the by-election as a BJP candidate from Radhanpur in Patan district. He had won Radhanpur on a Congress ticket in the 2017 elections before joining the BJP.
The constituency has three seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) and as many for Scheduled Castes (SC).
All three assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes are with the Congress, while the two seats reserved for Scheduled Castes are with the BJP. The third SC-reserved seat is represented by Mevani, this time the Congress candidate from Vadgam.
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