analysis | Triple Talaq in 2017, Marriage Law in 2021: Action Replay of BJP’s victory story in Uttar Pradesh?

It was a promise to end the practice of triple talaq, which the BJP had taken to the city before securing a record victory in the 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. This time around, an action replay has begun with a similar issue – a promise to raise the minimum age of marriage for all women from 18 to 21.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath both raised the subject in Prayagraj on Tuesday, with the PM saying everyone knows who is stalling the bill. The proposed law, which would apply equally to all religions but would take time to be implemented as it has now gone to the Parliamentary Standing Committee, is already a big issue among the Muslim community in Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party is in alliance on this, with two of its Lok Sabha Muslim MPs criticizing the move, while party chief Akhilesh Yadav has supported it.

In 2017, when the BJP-led alliance won 325 of the state’s 403 assembly seats, the party did well in several Muslim-majority areas as well. In fact, it won over 100 seats, where Muslims constituted 20 to 33% of the electorate. Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati questioned the BJP’s performance in Muslim-dominated seats, asking whether the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) had been hacked. BJP’s victory against Muslim candidates of other parties in constituencies like Deoband, Moradabad and Phulpur Powai raised the possibility that some Muslim women voted for it.

Read also | Zakia Soman, who is leading the fight against triple talaq, writes that increasing the age of marriage equally is welcome

While one reason for this could be the Centre’s welfare schemes like Ujjwala, toilets and free housing, which reach women from all communities, one theory was that Muslim women were tempted by the BJP’s promise to bring a law against triple talaq. . Both the Prime Minister and the then Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad had openly said that a law would be brought. BJP finally did the same in 2019.

A senior UP BJP leader told News18, “The Marriage Act Bill may have a similar impact on voters.”

Firstly, some Muslim women may support the BJP as it is a women-friendly move and the minimum marriage age has been raised from just 15 to 21, as is widely followed among Muslims, he said. “Secondly, the bill sends a big message to the majority community that the law will bring all religions on equal footing on this issue and discrimination is being removed,” the leader said.

The state BJP is already planning to include this issue in a big way in its campaign after both the PM and CM mentioned this. Akhilesh Yadav, who had earlier criticized the triple talk move and said it would be used as a “weapon against minorities”, surprisingly backed the move to raise the marriageable age of women to 21. Said that his party has always supported women empowerment. He has distanced himself from statements made by two of his Lok Sabha MPs, Shafiqur Rehman Burke and ST Hasan, who have criticized the law.

The BJP feels that a split in the opposition over the proposed law will soon emerge, which will go in its favour. The ruling party enjoyed strong support from women voters in Uttar Pradesh in the 2017 state elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, mainly on the issue of law and order and welfare schemes. This time both the SP and the Congress are reaching out to women strongly, so the marriage law could be the new weapon of the BJP to retain its voters.

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