Allahabad Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP Eyes Hattrick in Sangam Nagri, Cong Banks on SP Tie-Up – News18

Allahabad is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies of Uttar Pradesh and is located in the Prayagraj district. The Lok Sabha constituency comprises of the following five assembly segments: Meja (SP), Karachhana (BJP), Allahabad South (BJP), Bara (Apna Dal) and Koraon (BJP). The current MP is Rita Bahuguna Joshi of the BJP, while those in the fray for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections are Neeraj Tripathi (BJP) and Ujjwal Raman Singh (Congress/INDIA bloc). The constituency will vote on May 25 in the sixth phase of polls and results will be declared on June 4.

Political Dynamics

• BJP Eyes Third Victory in Tough Fight: Allahabad requires no introduction. Prayagraj symbolises sangam, or confluence of India’s two great rivers – the Ganga and Yamuna. It hosts the Kumbh Melas – and has been doing so for centuries. Being one of the most important Hindu pilgrimage sites, the constituency remains a crucial one for BJP. In 2019, BJP won Allahabad by a margin of 1.84 lakh votes. This was when the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party were in alliance. Now, the SP and Congress have joined hands and are taking on the BJP, which has fielded Neeraj Tripathi from the seat instead of Rita Bahuguna Joshi. Tripathi, the son of former West Bengal governor and former UP Assembly speaker Keshari Nath Tripathi, is relying mostly on his father’s legacy and reputation to win the election. Then comes in the Narendra Modi factor, followed by BJP’s vision for development, Hindutva and promise of last-mile delivery. By changing its candidate this time, despite Rita Bahuguna winning by a significant margin in 2019, BJP has played a big gamble in Prayagraj – one which could go either way. Neeraj Tripathi is not seen as a leader who is up to the task just yet. By contrast, his rival of the Congress is very well-known across the constituency. As such, the battle for Prayagraj will be a referendum of sorts on “Modi Ki Guarantee,” since the Prime Minister remains the BJP’s biggest bet here.
• Close Contest: The fight in Prayagraj, ground inputs suggest, is neck-to-neck at the moment. However, the situation is expected to change considerably as voting day (May 25) nears. A “Modi wave”, which characterised the general elections of both 2014 and 2019, is not being seen this time around. Although the reasons for these may be many, it does not necessarily indicate resentment or anger, or even disillusionment with the prime minister. In many ways, this is an election of the silent voter, whose voice will only be heard on June 4.
• Congress Gets Right Candidate, Hopes SP Can Deliver: In the Lok Sabha polls of 2004, the Congress received just about 40,000 votes. In 2009, this number slipped further to 33,000 votes. Then, in 2014, the party was able to garner just about 1 lakh votes, which in 2019 again collapsed to 31,000. Left on its own in Allahabad, the Congress would find it difficult to not just defeat the BJP, but also emerge as the first runner-up in the fight. For the INDIA bloc in Prayagraj, a lot depends on the Samajwadi Party and whether it can transfer enough votes to the Congress kitty. The climb is steep, considering the fact that the BJP won the seat in the last election by a margin of 1.84 lakh votes and a vote share of over 55 per cent. One factor working to the Congress’ advantage is its choice of candidate — Ujjwal Raman Singh. Like the BJP’s Neeraj Tripathi, Singh comes from a political family and is fighting to establish the legacy of his father — eight-time MLA and regional stalwart Rewati Raman Singh.
• Strategic Moves: Interestingly, Rewati Raman Singh hails from the Samajwadi Party and yet, his son is contesting on a Congress ticket. This appears to be a strategic decision, aimed at ensuring that the SP votes transfer to the Congress seamlessly not due to Ujjwal Raman Singh, but due to the stature his father still commands in the constituency. It is said about Rewati Raman Singh that he knows every third house and family in Prayagraj. After the announcement of his son’s Congress candidature, he began actively promoting the Samajwadi Party across Uttar Pradesh — almost as if returning a favour to the party for allowing his son to contest on a Congress ticket. Many believe the actual fight in Prayagraj is between the BJP and Rewati Raman Singh, while Ujjwal Singh remains just the face of the INDIA bloc. If that assertion holds any water, the BJP is indeed going to face a much tougher fight this election compared to what it has faced in the last two elections.
• Caste Matrix: The INDIA camp’s biggest vote bank in Prayagraj is the Muslim-Yadav bloc, as expected. Together, they make up about 3.35 lakh voters, since Yadavs have a population of 1.25 lakh, while Muslims number about 2 lakh. While this vote is expected to head the Congress’ way – with the exception of a chunk of Yadavs – the other communities are still believed to be supportive of the BJP, though degrees of support may vary. These include the Brahmins, Thakur-Bhumihars, Kurmis, Kols, Vaishyas and others. The Kurmis, with a population of over 2 lakh, hold the key, and the BJP is trying hard to ensure it can expand its support within the community this election. For context, in the 2022 state assembly polls, there were about 40 per cent Kurmis who did not vote for the BJP. The fight for Prayagraj is indeed tough. However, the BJP’s 2019 victory margin and the fact that the INDIA bloc is essentially taking on PM Modi on each constituency gives the BJP a slight edge in this UP constituency as well.

Key Issues

• Garbage Dumping: Prayagraj faces significant challenges with open garbage dumps located in residential areas like Chandralok crossing, Manmohan Park, Katra, and Muthiganj. These sites, used as collection points before waste is transported to Baswar for recycling, create issues for residents and commuters due to scattered garbage and the presence of stray animals. The situation worsens after rainfall as the accumulated waste generates a strong, pervasive odour, raising concerns about potential health risks, including water-borne and skin diseases. In response, the Prayagraj Municipal Corporation (PMC) is implementing stricter measures to address improper waste disposal, including identifying households that disregard warnings and incorporating garbage fees into house tax bills for those who fail to utilise designated waste collection services.
• Drinking Water Crisis: Certain areas of Prayagraj, particularly those situated across the Ganga and Yamuna rivers, experience recurring water scarcity, especially during summer. In 2023, residents of the Pura Padiyan ward in Tilak Nagar, Prayagraj, filed a PIL highlighting the lack of water supply affecting approximately 10,000 people. Under the ‘Har Ghar Nal’ scheme, the government will utilise Ganga and Yamuna water to supply potable water to households across 18 development blocks. While survey work for suitable plant locations is underway, borewell pump installations are concurrently being implemented to ensure widespread water access.
• Farmers’ Issues: Farmers in Prayagraj face significant challenges due to the increasingly unpredictable climate. Traditional crops are vulnerable to droughts, floods, and temperature fluctuations, leading to frequent crop failures and financial losses. While the state government is promoting alternative crops like dragon fruit, the high initial investment of approximately Rs 10 lakh per acre, primarily for support structures, poses a barrier for small and medium farmers. Although the government offers financial assistance of Rs 30,000 per hectare and technical support, it often falls short of covering the actual expenses, making it difficult for many farmers to transition to climate-resilient crops.
• Inflation: Some voters are miffed with the fact that the elections are being fought over issues of religion rather than on issues which deeply impact the public, such as inflation. According to reports on the ground, dal (Pulses) was Rs 50 just some years ago, now it is Rs 100. Vegetables for even one meal are not available under Rs 100 now. Moreover, the salary of people has not kept pace with inflation, which is pinching people hard.
• Pollution: Air pollution remains a major issue in Prayagraj, with the city expanding and choking miserably. According to reports, Prayagraj ranks as the ninth most polluted city in terms of air quality. The issue is not limited to Prayagraj. According to a report last year in October, among the country’s top 10 most polluted cities in India, eight are situated in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh.
• Unemployment and Emigration: Despite there being many industries in the region, there has not been any considerable decline in the unemployment figures as many jobs have been taken up by migrant workers from Lucknow and Kanpur. As a result, people in Prayagraj have been forced to migrate to other states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra and Delhi.
• Traffic Issues: Traffic congestion is a major issue in Prayagraj. With the rise in population and the city considered to be a hub of economic development in eastern UP, there has been an increase in the number of migrants arriving in the constituency. This has also led to a rise in private vehicles as people do not deem the public transportation to be adequate. Moreover, increasing population has also led to unplanned development due to which encroachment of government land along the roads has become a major issue, exacerbating the problem of traffic congestion. In addition, footpaths have been occupied by hawkers, the homeless, and migrant workers who have nowhere to turn to.

Infrastructure Development

• Civic Infrastructure: Prayagraj is undergoing significant civic infrastructure development, with various projects underway to enhance essential services and facilities. These include a new District Prison, a Regional Forensic Science Laboratory, and a Driving Training Institute. Education is being addressed with a new Government Inter College, a Government Industrial Training Institute in Soraon, and an additional women’s hostel at Medical College. Other key improvements include a domestic sewer home connection scheme, a Veterinary Polyclinic, a District Sainik Welfare and Rehabilitation Office, a residential building for the Social Welfare Department, a Mini Stadium, and several piped drinking water schemes. Road infrastructure is being addressed with CC road, interlocking, and drain construction projects, as well as link road projects by the Public Works Department. Several projects are still in the planning stages, with foundation stones laid for 243 piped drinking water schemes, a rail level crossing near Jagatpur, additional link roads, and a new Unani Medical College and Hospital with staff housing.
• Amrit Bharat: Prayagraj railway station, a major nodal point in the North Central railway, has been selected as one of the stations under the central government’s Amrit Bharat scheme. This will provide improved infrastructure and passenger facilities and will also transform the station into a logistical hub. Redevelopment of Prayagraj junction will be done at a cost of more than Rs 900 crore.
• Six-Laning of Chakeri-Allahabad: The six-laning of Chakeri-Allahabad section of National Highway (NH-2) in Uttar Pradesh has brought major relief to the people in the region as it helps ease the movement and provide greater connectivity.
• Vande Bharat: Prayagraj is connected with two Vande Bharat trains, one which runs between New Delhi and Varanasi. With the availability of this new train, it will now become easy to go to Delhi and back within a day. Another Vande Bharat provides connectivity to and from Gorakhpur. It covers a total distance of 500 kms and takes 7:30 hours to complete the journey.
• Railway Infrastructure: Projects include the construction of foot-over bridges, platform upgrades, and the addition of escalators. There is a focus on providing better facilities for passengers, with improvements to waiting areas, shelters, and sanitation facilities. The railway is also investing in modernisation efforts, such as the installation of LED lighting, display boards, and modernised laundry facilities. Work is ongoing on several projects, including the extension of platforms, the construction of flyovers and under bridges, and the installation of additional track lines, demonstrating a commitment to ongoing infrastructure development in the region.
• Prayagraj Ring Road: NHAI has announced that a ring road will be constructed in Allahabad to ease the traffic issues in the city. The initial phase involves building a 29.8-km ring road in two years, from Sahson to Dandupur. The government has allocated approximately Rs 500 crore for land acquisition compensation, with around Rs 300 crore earmarked for private landowners. The project also includes the construction of a 3.2-km, six-lane bridge over the Ganga, beginning at Arail (Naini) and ending at Adhawa (Jhunsi).

Demographics

Total Voters: 17,13,808

SC Voters: 358,186 (20.9%)

ST Voters: 3,428 (0.2%)

Rural Voters: 1,254,507 (73.2%)

Urban Voters: 459,301 (26.8%)

Muslims: 14%

Voter Turnout in 2019 General Election: 51.7%

Explore in-depth coverage of Lok Sabha Election 2024 Schedule, Voter Turnout, Upcoming Phase And Much More At News18 Website