9 out of 15 drought weeks: heavy rain compensates in 6 weeks; Now there is a decrease of 4%, there are no favorable conditions for the monsoon farewell, two more rounds of rain are possible

Picture of Rambagh railway station in Prayagraj, where railway tracks have been submerged in water due to waterlogging due to rain.

After knocking in the country on June 3, 108 days of monsoon are being completed on Saturday. Out of these 15 weeks of monsoon, 9 weeks were dry. But 6 weeks of excess rainfall has made up for the shortfall to such an extent that now the country is short of only 4%. Meteorologist RK Jenamani said that Friday (September 17) was the normal date for the departure of monsoon from Pokhran in western Rajasthan. But at present, conditions are not favorable for the withdrawal of monsoon for the next two weeks.

At least two spells of rain are expected in the next two weeks. Weather models are indicating that two low pressure areas will develop in the Bay of Bengal and move in a north-westerly direction, entering Odisha and West Bengal. Its effect will be till Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. According to the IMD, after the first 3 weeks of June, one week in July and now in September, there has been above normal rainfall for two consecutive weeks. On 15 September, 53% more rain has been received in the completed 15 weeks of monsoon, which is the highest rainfall in a week in this monsoon.

Normal or more rain has occurred in 76% of the districts
76% of the districts of the country have received normal or above rainfall. In the last 24 hours, Barabanki in UP received 176 mm, Lucknow 128 mm, Hardoi 111 mm, Kanpur 102 mm. Apart from this, Dharamsala recorded 60 mm, Chandigarh 45 mm, Gurdaspur 33 mm, Delhi 12.9 mm and Gujarat’s Baroda 49 mm.

Monsoon returned before September 15 only thrice in 15 years
In the last 15 years, 12 times the withdrawal of monsoon has started only after 21 September. Only 3 times the withdrawal of monsoon took place before 15 September. According to the data, the withdrawal of monsoon had started from September 21 in 2006. At that time it had rained 100% in the country. Monsoon had returned from September 9 in 2013, September 4 in 2015 and September 15 in 2016.

Now what next: Two circulations are being made, heavy rain expected between 25 to 29
A Cyclonic Circulation has formed off the Myanmar coast in the Bay of Bengal. He will reach North Odisha and West Bengal on Saturday. Then in two-three days it will pass through North Odisha, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. During this time there will be heavy rain in these areas.

By September 22, there will be above normal rainfall over entire North-West and Central India, normal over East and Northeast India and below normal over South Peninsula. On September 25, once again, the cyclonic circulation formed off the coast of Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal will enter India from Odisha. It will bring heavy rains over entire East and Central India from September 25 to 29.