8 सवालों से समझे पूरे गुजरात चुनाव का गणित: भाजपा ने दिया विकास-हिन्दुत्व का पैकेज, आप ने विपक्षी वोट को ही दो-फाड़ किया

Apart from the tsunami of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name, behind this historic victory of the BJP in Gujarat, if there is any major reason, it is the BJP’s successful strategy of making the entire election external versus internal. Also, BJP gave such a package of Hindutva and development to the people in the form of Gujarat model that more than half of the people who voted only pressed the lotus button.

Instead of making the contest triangular here, AAP directly split the Congress vote. Due to this BJP has established a new record of both seat and vote in Gujarat.

Come, let us understand with the help of 8 questions that arise from this result, what were the reasons for BJP’s historic victory in Gujarat elections. Also, how much and how will this election affect future politics?

1. What is the biggest reason for this historic victory of BJP?
Not Modi’s wave, Tsunami. The main reason for this was the issue of outsider versus insider among the people. Congress could not establish any local face and AAP went to Gujarat only on the face of Arvind Kejriwal. That’s why BJP got historic votes (52.5%) and seats (157) despite voting less than last time.

2. Is such a huge victory possible on the strength of Modi?
Modi became PM in 2014. Gujaratis still believe that Modi is in Gujarat only. He associates them with his pride. Gujaratis feel that Modi has come to Gujarat and said, so now there is no need to listen to anyone after this. This time Modi held the longest road show of 54 km in Ahmedabad, three more road shows, as well as 31 meetings. BJP has won in 95% of the constituencies, but it would be wrong to say that it is only because of Modi.

3. Then what was the biggest strategy of BJP?
Hindutva and development package. Everyone knows that the laboratory of Hindutva started from Gujarat. After the 2002 Godhra riots, the BJP won a historic victory with 127 seats on the issue of Hindutva. Then in 2003 started the Vibrant Gujarat Summit. Made a new Gujarat model of development. Then Ram Mandir, triple talaq and abolition of Article 370.

4. Why didn’t AAP’s Delhi model work in Gujarat?
Electricity bill waiver, free treatment in government hospitals and free quality education are the main part of AAP’s Delhi model. The BJP was successful in convincing Gujaratis that nothing is needed for free. Then the BJP advocated the Gujarat model in comparison to the Delhi model and linked it to Gujarat pride. That is, the Gujarat model was made the model of Gujaratis.

5. Has AAP’s entire strategy failed?
A key part of AAP’s strategy was to achieve national party status through elections in Gujarat. With getting around 13% votes, it has been decided to get this status. Its official announcement is pending.

6. Who benefited or lost from AAP’s fight?
The vote share of Congress was 41% in 2017, which has come down to 28%. His vote fell short by 13%. On the other hand Aam Aadmi Party got only 13% votes. Prima facie it is clear that only 41% votes against BJP got divided into two parts.

7. If AAP had not come then BJP government would not have been formed?
It is not like that either. BJP has got historic 53% votes. In such a situation, even if all the opposition votes go to one party, there would be no problem in forming the government for the BJP. Yes, there would definitely be a decrease in vote share and seats. The vote share of BJP was 49% in 2017, which has increased to 53%.

8. What was the biggest mistake made by the Congress?
The Congress had adopted this strategy from day one that members of the Gandhi family would stay away from the Gujarat election campaign. Rahul also held only two meetings in a day. Local leader and local level propaganda was the strategy of Congress, but it proved completely wrong. Due to this, the Congress lost badly even in the rural areas, which were considered to be its strongholds.

Finally: What is the impact of Gujarat elections on the country’s politics?
There is a BJP government in Gujarat for 27 years. To deal with anti-incumbency, the Chief Minister and all the ministers were changed a year before the elections. Its effect was seen in the result as a historic victory. In such a situation, this experiment can be seen in the BJP-ruled states, including the elections to be held in Madhya Pradesh next year. Along with this, the faith of the country and the BJP has increased on the Modi-Shah duo. This will accelerate the BJP on its agenda ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.