New Delhi5 minutes ago
- copy link
A shocking analysis has come to the fore regarding the rising sea level on the sea coast cities in the country. According to global risk management firm RMSI, many large buildings and roads in Thiruvananthapuram, including Mumbai, Kochi, Mangalore, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, will be submerged by 2050.
RMSI analysis has found that Haji Ali Dargah in Mumbai, Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Western Express Highway, Bandra-Worli Sea-Link are in danger of sinking. RMSI has said this on the basis of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Apart from this, models made with new data and effects of climate change were also used.
Digital models of 6 cities were made for analysis
The name of this latest report published on climate change is ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis’. For this analysis, 6 coastal cities of the country, Mumbai, Chennai, Kochi, Visakhap, Mangalore and Thiruvananthapuram were included.
Experts from RMSI created a high resolution digital model for the sea shores of these cities. After this a map was prepared to measure the water level and flood. The IPCC has predicted that by 2050 the sea level around India will rise significantly.
North Indian Ocean’s water level will rise by 1 foot in 2050
Regarding climate change, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has also said that the water level of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) saw an increase of 1.06-1.75 mm every year during the year 1874-2004. At the same time, there was an increase of 3.3 mm every year during 1993-2017. In both cases, this increase is equal to the average rate of sea level rise around the world.
The IPCC estimates that by 2050, the standing water level of the North Indian Ocean will rise by about 300 mm, or 1 foot, from 1986 to 2005. According to the MoES report, this estimate for the global average growth is around 180 mm.
Climate change is also an important reason
Roxy Matthew Cole, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorological Department, told the media that sea level rise was not the only factor in the sinking of coastal cities. Coastal areas are already bearing the brunt of climate change.
At present, the incidents of cyclone, storm and heavy rain are increasing. These cause coastal flooding. In the last four decades, there has been a 52% increase in cyclones on the west coast. There has been a 3-fold increase in heavy rainfall compared to the 1950s. By 2050, the global temperature change will be close to 2 °C. After this, cyclones and heavy rains will intensify further.
Mathew said that due to rise in sea level and all these incidents, coastal flooding can increase, which will affect a large area. We need to urgently monitor and study these incidents, so that a system can be prepared for warning at the time of disaster.
1000 buildings will drown in Mumbai
The analysis found that by the year 2050, about 998 buildings and 24 km of roads in Mumbai will be affected by the water level rise. At the same time, about 2,490 buildings and 126 km of roads will be affected during high tide.
Due to this, 55 buildings and 5 km long road in Chennai will be at risk. Most of these will be residential buildings located in low-lying areas. Around 464 buildings are expected to be affected in Kochi by 2050. During high tide, this number will increase to around 1,502.
In Thiruvananthapuram this figure will be 349 and 387 buildings. At the same time, about 206 houses and 9 km of road network are likely to be submerged in Visakhapatnam by 2050.
Roads have to be raised for rescue
RMSI Senior Vice President Pushpendra Johri said – How much water from the coastal cities will go into the hinterland will depend on what kind of continental shelf we have. The continental shelf is the edge of the continent submerged under the sea. The effect of rise in water level will be different in different areas.
We intend to take our report to the affected state governments. We will also share this with the World Bank and the National Disaster Management Authority. Johri said that we can take some steps to deal with this. Efforts can be made to increase the height of roads and strengthen buildings against corrosion.