Incorrect indications by the model, difficulty in predicting the consequences of the interaction between the east and west winds were some of the major reasons behind the India Meteorological Department’s monsoon forecast for parts of north India, with experts citing any respite from the oppressive heat. away from the area mentioned in.
The Southwest Monsoon has reached almost all parts of the country, but remained away from some parts of North India. It is yet to reach Delhi, Haryana, parts of western Uttar Pradesh and western Rajasthan.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted that the monsoon is expected to cover these parts by June – a little less than a month, but its predictions are yet to come true. In its forecast on June 13, the IMD had predicted that the southwest monsoon would reach Delhi by June 15. However, a day later it said that the conditions are not conducive for it to move forward in the region.
Then a long ‘break-spell’ ensued, during which the Southwest Monsoon weakened over many parts of the country. On July 1, the IMD said that conditions may become favorable for further advance of monsoon by July 7. Low-lying moist easterly winds over Bay of Bengal are very likely to gradually establish over parts of East India from July 8. said.
On July 5, the IMD again stated that the monsoon is likely to spread over north-west India covering Punjab and northern Haryana by July 10. However, there was no sign of any relief even on 10 July. On the forecast of the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, the IMD said that it will reach the southern state by May 31. Till May 30, the IMD in its daily bulletin said that the onset of monsoon over Kerala is expected around May 31. However, by noon that day, it revised it saying that the start is expected by June 3. We could only tell in the morning (late start). However, we are monitoring all the defined parameters/parameters for the onset of monsoon over Kerala. At present the criteria are not fully satisfied, IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said on May 30.
Mohapatra said the country’s forecasting agency has issued a forecast that the monsoon will cover parts of North India, including Delhi, by June 15, as indicated by the model. But we changed it the next day (June 14) when we realized that the conditions were not conducive for it to go ahead. He said the forecast model did not show continuity in the interaction of the two dominant patterns – easterly winds and westerly winds.
Mohapatra said that when it comes to forecasts up to two weeks, the accuracy of the models is quite good but not as good for forecasts of four weeks. M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, who has spent more than 35 years studying the southwest monsoon, said forecast models give wrong indications. The model has picked up on some broader events like the break in monsoon and its revival a week ago very well. But when it comes to local forecasts such as its progress over Kerala or rain in parts of the north, there is an issue, Rajeevan said. With respect to the forecast of further advance of Monsoon into parts of North India including Delhi, it was too early.
IMD should not have issued the forecast. They said they could have waited some more. IMD is an institute under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Mohapatra’s predecessor KJ Ramesh said that tracking the interaction of westerly winds and easterly winds is the most difficult part in the monsoon forecast.
In a normal scenario, the Southwest Monsoon covers many parts of West Bengal and central India by June 15, exactly 14 days after its onset over Kerala, marking the official start of the four-month rainy season in the country. . However, it takes about three weeks to cover parts of north India, Ramesh said. This is also due to the interaction of east and west winds. He said that Pachua is the first elder brother between Hawa and Purvai. It is only when there is an area of low pressure that the east gets strength which can help it to move further. This usually creates a sea-saw-like condition. This is also one of the reasons when North India sees a break in monsoon, he explained.
They (IMD) must have observed some strength of monsoon which is capable of moving westwards (towards North India), which is why they issued the forecast (Monsoon covering remaining parts of North India including Delhi). Anticipating a see-saw effect, the judgment did not come true, Ramesh said. Former Director General of IMD Ajit Tyagi said the forecasting agency had predicted that in the first surge, the southwest monsoon may cover the country by June 15-16. But then it weakened and there were clear indications that it would not revive before July 10. It was indicated. Taigi said that if we look at the medium-term forecast of 10-15 days, it was correct.
He said that the initial forecasts were not realized, but the IMD corrected the course.
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