Russia is making profits in eastern Ukraine, or what is known as the Donbass region. in war Ukraine entering a crucial phase. There is only one question in everyone’s mind that what next? What does Russian President Vladimir Putin intend to do after the Russian military takes control of the Donbass? Will they attempt to take back Kyiv and once again topple the Ukrainian regime led by Volodymyr Zelensky? Or will Russia declare an armistice, capture the Donbass and call it a day after cutting off its links to the Black Sea, making Ukraine a landlocked country permanently?
This might have happened if NATO had not opened the Kaliningrad Front. Now, what is Kaliningrad? This region is Russia’s gateway into the Baltic Sea. It is a Russian territory outside the Russian mainland. The best way to describe it would be to call an area of 223 sq km a Russian ‘exclave’. Kaliningrad is bordered by NATO members Poland and Lithuania. Essentially, Kaliningrad is Russian territory surrounded by NATO. This has always been a great cause of concern for Moscow.
now, Lithuania Rail transit from Russia and Belarus into Kaliningrad is blocked, and Moscow is furious. Lithuania has claimed that it has blocked the transit of Russian goods approved by Europe to pass through its territory. Products prohibited from being exported to Russian territory by the European Union include construction machinery, machine tools and other industrial equipment. Regional governor Anton Alikhanov said the ban would cover about 50 percent of the items imported by Kaliningrad.
The Russian exclave, which is said to house around a million people, depends largely on imports from both Russia and Europe. Therefore, the blocking of rail routes in the region to Lithuania is being seen by Moscow as an ‘unprecedented’ escalation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the move was unprecedented and Russia considered it illegal. “It’s definitely part of a blockade,” he remarked.
Nikolai Petrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and a close aide of Vladimir Putin, said, “Russia will certainly respond to such hostile actions. Measures are being taken in an interdepartmental format and will be carried out in the near future. Lithuanians of their consequences There will be a serious negative impact on the population.”
Kaliningrad: the next flashpoint?
Kaliningrad is of major strategic importance to Russia. It is not only Russia’s gateway to the Baltic Sea, but also the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Kaliningrad also has Russian combat forces, advanced air defense and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles. Above all, Russia has reportedly deployed its nuclear assets in the exclave.
And again, the exclave’s population of close to 1 million makes the region important to Russia. Kaliningrad has many industries, and is one of the prosperous regions of Russia. More importantly, Kaliningrad serves as a warm water port for Russia throughout the year, meaning that harsh winters do not hinder Russia’s shipping operations in and out of the exclave.
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Lithuania imposes restrictions on the transfer of goods to Kaliningrad, therefore posing a national security risk to Russia. Although Russia can still send goods from the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea to Kaliningrad using the sea route from St Petersburg, Moscow has not taken the strength of the EU and NATO lightly.
here’s some perspective
Consider this: Alaska is a US territory. There is no question mark on this fact. Its population is about 7 lakh people. Yes, there are effectively fewer people living in the vast US state of Alaska than the population of Kaliningrad. Now, in a hypothetical scenario, if United States transit routes to Alaska were to be blocked by any country, or if Russia were to pose a national security risk to Alaska to Kaliningrad, how would Washington react? Mind you, the United States has a long history of making reckless and often disastrous decisions when it ‘threatened’ its national security.
What are Russia’s alternatives?
Lithuania is in some big trouble. Vilnius claims that in banning rail transit routes to Kaliningrad, it has complied with EU sanctions against Russia. This gives Russia all the more reason to ‘punish’ Europe.
The ‘Suwalki Corridor’ is a 65-kilometre (40 mi) strip of land in Poland along the border with Lithuania. This corridor has highway and rail connections that can be used by Russia to move goods through Belarus to Kaliningrad. However, taking control of this corridor would require Russia to use its armed forces. This would mean that Russia would effectively wage war against Poland as well as Lithuania – both NATO member states.
Under Article 5 of NATO, which sees an attack against one of the member states as an attack on all, the United States and its allies would be forced to respond to Russia. Already, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US stood with Lithuania, adding that the country’s commitment to Article 5 of NATO was “wearing iron”.
Russia is reportedly considering its options. A response from Moscow is imminent. Given the fact that the Kremlin is already saying that the people of Lithuania are suffering, it doesn’t take a genius guess to realize that military operations are very much on the table. Unlike Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, any move by Russia to establish a land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad would threaten a direct war with NATO.
It seems that Lithuania has again acted at the behest of the EU and NATO. It was completely unnecessary to strike Russia with the Kaliningrad card. Now, Kaliningrad promises to become ground zero for a direct war between Russia and NATO.
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