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- BJP may form Shinde faction; NCP also in wait and watch mode; Know where the screw can get stuck
Mumbai4 minutes agoAuthor: Ashish Rai
There have been almost two splits in Shiv Sena. Thackeray’s Shiv Sena is now going to be captured by Shinde according to the number of MLAs. In such a situation, the politics of Maharashtra is going to take a new turn, after which CM Uddhav Thackeray has no other option but to resign.
After the fall of the Mahavikas Aghadi government, there are only two options for the mid-term elections and the formation of the BJP government in the state. Since there is a BJP government at the Centre, there is little scope for mid-term elections at the moment.
There is a possibility that the BJP and Shiv Sena Shinde faction coalition government will be formed in the state. In the event of the formation of the government, Devendra Fadnavis can become the CM and Eknath Shinde can become the deputy CM. However, there can be a long fight between Shiv Sena over the qualification of MLAs, due to which the political crisis in Maharashtra may go on for a little longer.
Political Mathematics of Maharashtra
Eknath Shinde has shown power by releasing photos with 42 Shiv Sena and 7 independent MLAs at the Guwahati Five Star Hotel.
The revolt by Shinde faction of Shiv Sena in Maharashtra politics is now showing color. Eknath Shinde, a minister in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, is imprisoned in a hotel in Guwahati along with 37 Shiv Sena MLAs and 9 independents. By sending a signed letter of 37 Shiv Sena MLAs, he has told Maharashtra Deputy Speaker Narhari Jirwal, Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari and Legislature Secretary Rajendra Bhagwat that he is now the leader of Shiv Sena Legislature Party. Eknath has also informed about the appointment of Bharat Gogavale as the Chief Whip. Sunil Prabhu was earlier working in this post.
Demand to cancel membership of 12 rebel Shiv Sena MLAs
After the rebellion of Shinde faction, Uddhav Thackeray left his official residence and went to live in Matoshree. At the same time, the party has written a letter to the Deputy Speaker for action against the 12 MLAs accompanying Shinde.
Three Shiv Sena and 5 independent MLAs are likely to join Shinde’s army today. At present he has the support of 46 MLAs officially. Meanwhile, Shiv Sena leader Ajay Chaudhary has filed a petition before Deputy Speaker Narhari. In this, a demand has been made to cancel the membership of 12 MLAs.
They have been accused of not attending the meeting called by Uddhav Thackeray on Thursday. It has been said in the petition that notice was issued before the meeting, which said that if you do not attend the meeting then legal action will be taken under the Constitution.
Deputy Speaker has to decide on 12 MLAs
The 12 rebel MLAs whose names have been proposed for disqualification by Shiv Sena are Eknath Shinde, Prakash Surve, Tanaji Sawanto, Mahesh Shinde, Abdul Sattari, Sandeep Bhumre, Bharat Gogawale, Sanjay Shirsato, Yamini Yadav, Anil Babri, Balaji Devdas and Lata Chaudhary. Are included. Now the Deputy Speaker has to decide on their future.
On this action, Eknath Shinde retaliated and asked who are you trying to scare? Shinde said that he knows the rules and regulations. The reason is that we are the real Shiv Sainiks of the respected Shiv Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray, the real Shiv Sena.
Shinde spoke of action against Uddhav supported MLAs
Rebel faction leader Eknath Shinde has warned of action against the MLAs of the Uddhav faction.
Shinde further said, ‘Who are you trying to threaten? We know your tricks and understand the law very well. According to the 10th Schedule of the Constitution, the whip is applicable for legislative business and not for any sitting. We instead demand action against you because you don’t have enough number (of MLAs), but still you have formed a group of 12 MLAs. We do not pay any heed to such threats.
Let us now understand in 8 points on which side the politics of Maharashtra can sit…
- The crisis of saving the party before the government in front of Uddhav: Describing 37 out of 55 Shiv Sena MLAs with him, Eknath Shinde is claiming that he has not broken the party, but the real Shiv Sena is with him. However, Shinde would also need the support of a large number of MPs to stake claim on the Shiv Sena. It is also coming out that 17 Shiv Sena MPs are also supporting Eknath Shinde. In such a situation, Uddhav Thackeray now has a challenge to save his party before the government.
- Possibility of floor test: After this action from Shiv Sena, the possibility of floor test in Maharashtra has increased. Now both the factions will have to prove their majority. Earlier, NCP chief Sharad Pawar had also said that whether the government will survive or not, it will be known from the floor test. The floor test is also being talked about by many leaders from the Congress side.
- Will have to prove majority in the assembly: In Maharashtra, both the Chief Minister and the Governor are corona infected. The Governor has been admitted to Reliance Foundation Hospital in South Mumbai. In such a situation, the first thing is that if the Chief Minister recommends the dissolution of the House, then the Governor can say that prove the majority, after that the recommendation will be considered. If the majority can be proved inside the house, then a sitting of the house will have to be called. It will be decided in the house itself whether there is a majority or not.
- Shinde can form government with BJP: Eknath Shinde, along with Shiv Sena’s 37+3 (likely) and 9+5 (likely) independent MLAs, may form the government with the Bharatiya Janata Party. In such a situation, Devendra Fadnavis will become the Chief Minister and Eknath Shinde will become the Deputy Chief Minister.
- President’s rule may be imposed in Maharashtra: According to the experts of the constitution, if Eknath is unable to touch the figure of 37 MLAs, then the party will also go out of his hands and his membership will also be cancelled. In such a situation, neither Uddhav will have majority nor with Devendra Fadnavis and President’s rule can be imposed under Article 356 of the Constitution.
- Rebel MLAs can resign: It may also happen that the rebel MLAs of Shiv Sena resign and in the by-elections, these MLAs will come out winning the BJP ticket. If he wins then BJP government can be formed. Such a situation has also come in Karnataka, when Congress and Janata Dal Secular (JDS) MLAs started resigning one after the other.
- Thackeray accepts all the conditions of Shinde: There is also a possibility that Uddhav Thackeray will listen to Eknath Shinde and go with the BJP. In this situation also Devendra Fadnavis will get the post of Chief Minister. However, this possibility seems to be minimal.
- NCP-BJP government can also be formed: Looking at the developments of the last three days, ministers from NCP quota Ajit Pawar, Chhagan Bhujbal and Jayant Patil have not blamed the BJP for the current situation. Calling it an internal matter of Shiv Sena, they are giving clean chit to BJP. Sources also say that some big NCP leaders are in touch with the BJP central team. In such a situation, there is also a possibility that NCP may form the government with the help of BJP.
There was rebellion in Shiv Sena earlier also: Shinde faction was ready to break the party if it did not go with BJP in 2014, Uddhav had to bow down
maths of assembly in maharashtra
The Shiv Sena has 55 MLAs, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 53 and the Congress 44 in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. The BJP has a total of 106 MLAs, as well as the support of some independent MLAs with the BJP. Mahavikas Aghadi has the support of a total of 169 MLAs. The support of 144 MLAs is necessary for the government.
Anti-defection law will not apply to Shinde faction
The Shinde faction says that they have the support of more than two-thirds of the party’s legislators. As such, the anti-defection law does not apply to them.
Let us know what is the anti-defection law
- After the 1967 general elections, the governments of many states fell due to the movement of MLAs. Anti-defection law was brought to stop this.
- Parliament included it in the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution in 1985. Through this law, those MLAs / MPs who change party are punished.
- In this, a group of MPs/MLAs is allowed to join (merge) another party without coming under the penalty of defection.
- This law is incapable of punishing those political parties who instigate or allow MLAs/MPs to change party.
- A party is allowed to merge with another political party. The condition is such that at least two-thirds of the members of that party are in favor of the merger.
- In such a situation, the anti-defection law will not apply to the public representatives nor to the political party.
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