Vaccine nationalism could strongly influence the global trajectory of COVID-19 case numbers and increase the potential emergence of novel variants, warn researchers. A team of researchers from the US and Canada tracked the incidence of COVID-19 cases under a series of assumptions related to vaccine dosage regimen, vaccination rate and immune response.
They did this in two model areas: one with high-reach (HAR) of vaccines and one with low-reach area (LAR). The model allowed pairing of regions, either through import of matter, or for the development of a novel variant in a single region. This study is published in the journal Science.
“Some countries, such as Peru and South Africa that have had severe COVID-19 outbreaks, have received few vaccines, while many doses have gone to countries experiencing comparatively minor pandemic impacts, either due to increased mortality or economic dislocation. In context,” said Caroline Wagner, assistant professor of bioengineering at McGill University.
Overall, the study found that increased vaccine-sharing resulted in a reduced number of cases in LAR.
“Since it appears that vaccines are highly effective in reducing the clinical severity of infection, the public health implications of these reductions are very significant,” said Michael Mina, assistant professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
On the other hand, the models predicted that LAR with limited vaccine availability would result in a high probability of viral evolution, underlying the importance of rapid, equitable global vaccine delivery as a result of the continued advanced case numbers.
As the pandemic progresses, viral evolution may play a bigger role in maintaining transmission, the researchers said.
In addition, he noted that there are additional considerations for vaccine equity beyond epidemiological and evolutionary.
“The ethics also argue against countries that submit vaccines or allocate doses for boosters. This study strongly supports the ethical position that storage would undermine global health,” said Professor Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania.
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