Three Uttar Pradesh ministers and 11 MLAs have left the Bharatiya Janata Party. Most of them are leaders of ‘Other Backward Classes’ (OBC). Former minister Swami Prasad Maurya is said to have a good hold on Maurya, Kushwaha, Shakya and Saini votes in the state. Another minister who resigned from the BJP is Dara Singh Chouhan. He belongs to the backward Lohia-Chouhan caste. The third is Bahujan Samaj Party leader Dharam Singh Saini, who joined the BJP in 2016 along with Swami Prasad Maurya. All of them, after serving a full five years, now complain that the BJP is ignoring OBCs, Dalit farmers, youth and others. disadvantaged class.
All these are party tamasha, change parties before elections. Maurya was the OBC face of the BSP who had joined the BJP in 2016 before the assembly elections. It is alleged that he left both the BSP and the BJP as his son and daughter could not get tickets. Mayawati had said in 2016 that she was not given a ticket for the seats she is lobbying for, while the BJP could not accommodate Maurya’s son this time.
Dara Singh Chauhan was the first in BSP. Then he moved to the Samajwadi Party. He returned to the BSP and then joined the BJP in 2015. Saini is no different story.
His jumping political ships could be seen as more political opportunism. The appeal of such party-goers is limited. He is not expected to be a big vote puller on the basis of caste in a decisive election such as an assembly or parliamentary, a fact that this article will explain later.
But on the other hand, the main factor is the social reorganization done by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh which these party leaders will find difficult to trouble.
Social Reorganization of BJP in UP
Let us know about the voting preferences of different castes in the state in the last four elections since 2012. The BJP finished third in the 2012 assembly elections, but registered resounding victories in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 assembly elections.
As per CSDS post-poll analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, 72% Brahmins, 77% Rajputs, 71% Vaishyas, 77% Jats, 79% other upper castes, 53% Kurmi-Koeri (OBCs), 61% Non-Yadav OBCs, 18% Jatavs and 45% non-Jatav SCs voted for the BJP.
In the 2017 assembly elections, according to a post-election analysis by India Today, 62% of upper caste Hindus voted for the BJP, while according to a post-election analysis by the CSDS, the party received 59% of Kurmi-Kori votes and 62 % non-Yadav found. OBC vote. In 2019, the BJP further consolidated its gains. 82% Brahmins, 89% Rajputs, 70% Vaishyas, 91% Jats, 84% other upper castes, 80% Kurmi-Koris, 72% non-Yadav OBCs, 17% Jatavs, and 48% non-Jatav SCs voted for it .
We see a consolidation trend in favor of the BJP – election after election – since the last three major elections.
Now let’s compare these with the community-wise voting preferences of the 2012 UP Assembly elections. The Samajwadi Party secured a comfortable majority in the elections and formed the government under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav. The SP won 224 seats in the 403-member assembly. The BSP was second with 80 wins, while the BJP, which has been the central force in the corridors of power in Uttar Pradesh since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, could win only 47 seats.
This is reflected in the voting patterns of different communities. The BJP, which has traditionally been called a party of upper caste voters, could not get votes from even them. Only 38% Brahmins, 29% Rajputs, 42% Vaishyas, 17% other upper castes, 7% Jats, 20% Kurmi-Koris and 17% non-Yadav OBCs chose it, according to a post-election analysis by CSDS. runs.
But from the 2012 assembly elections to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, we see a huge jump in the prospects and performance of the BJP.
What were the reasons?
This was all because of the social reorganization carried out by the BJP – with its nationalist and Hindutva agenda – and the development promises made by the development-oriented PM candidate and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who decided to make Varanasi his political base in Uttar Pradesh. Did. Not only for the state but for the whole country. With this the 2013 Muzaffarnagar communal riots in UP and the anti-incumbency wave against the then government and the right ingredients were all ready, just waiting to be thrown into the mix.
Before the re-emergence of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, two caste-based political parties formed governments in the state. The main vote bank of the SP was the Muslim-Yadav alliance, while the BSP was a Jatav Dalit party. The BJP decided to take with it the base of the non-Yadav, non-Jatav population, especially the non-Yadav OBC vote bank, due to its large numerical size. OBCs constitute about 45% of the state’s population and BJP’s tallest leader and its PM candidate Narendra Modi, being an OBC, was a perfect start.
Non-Yadav OBCs constitute about 35% of the state’s population. With the BJP’s traditional vote bank of upper castes and business community, it was a winning formula. The style, agenda and campaign of BJP’s politics were aimed at realizing this potential. The party knew the importance of this winning combination – a victory in Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats meant winning India’s general election and the results of the 2014 elections proved that the BJP was successful in its social restructuring efforts in the state. When compared with regional parties in the state, non-Yadav OBC voters saw broad appeal in the promises, prospects and campaign of the Narendra Modi-led national party BJP.
a big reverse
From 2007 to 2012, UP saw its first chief minister completing a full five-year term. The anti-incumbency factor helped the SP replace the BSP’s Mayawati government in 2012, when UP completed its second CM’s full five-year term in office. It was the reversal of 2007.
But a large section of the state’s population was also not happy with Akhilesh Yadav’s government, as the next elections indicate. They were looking for an alternative and this was reflected in the style of campaign and politics of Narendra Modi and the BJP. Moving with a broader national spirit, he put his trust behind Narendra Modi’s campaign of development with nationalism, although Akhilesh Yadav had not even completed half his CM term, and his displeasure towards the SP government was understood by this fact. It can be noted that out of 80, the BJP and its allies won 73 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
BJP can write a different line of electoral politics in a state that has been engulfed by caste politics for years and the 2017 assembly elections saw a bigger turnaround than the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections. Like in 2014, the people of the state, across caste lines, again supported the campaign of the Modi-led BJP. Contrary to all calculations, the BJP won 312 seats against the incumbent SP’s 47. This was reflected again in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP and its allies, though winning 9 seats less or 64 seats overall, crossed the 50% vote-share mark while the SP remained confined to just five seats as in 2014. .
Along with its development-oriented Hindutva nationalist politics, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh has been able to effectively weave social reorganization by gaining the support of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, and it is going to be very difficult for rival parties. Is. Just break it down based on some of the leaders jumping ship.
And this is also proved by the past election results. Swami Prasad Maurya and many other OBC leaders joined the BJP in 2016. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 53% Kurmi-Kori and 60% other OBC votes. But despite those big OBC names, 2017 did not see any major change. That year, according to a post-election analysis by the CSDS, the party got just 6% more or 59% of the Kurmi-Kori votes and just 2% more or 62% of the other OBC votes.
The non-Yadav OBC voters believed in the promises made by the BJP and not in some turncoats and the 2019 Lok Sabha election results in Uttar Pradesh further prove it. A large section of non-Yadav OBC voters decided to go with the party they voted for in 2017. A post-election analysis by the CSDS stated that 80% of Kurmi-Kori and 72% of other non-Yadav voters chose the party. Couple with Yadav voters: Even 23% of Yadavs voted for the BJP, 13% more than the 2017 assembly elections.
If the BJP loses its vote share and seats in the February-March assembly elections, it is expected to be more on the lines of 2012 and previous assembly elections, i.e. the party is losing its support on the basis of caste. And not just OBC votes. If the BJP is going to fail in the next election, the main deciding factor will be the anti-incumbency wave, which will sabotage its social restructuring efforts on the basis of caste, be it upper castes or lower castes, not just OBCs.
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