On August 20, Congress President Sonia Gandhi held a virtual meeting with leaders of 18 other political parties to protest against the ruling BJP at the Centre. This was the third such meeting convened by the top leadership of the Congress. During the monsoon session of Parliament, Rahul Gandhi met opposition leaders twice, hosting a breakfast for them on one occasion. These developments are being seen as the first concrete step by the Congress to forge an alliance of anti-BJP parties since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power for the first time in 2014.
While the next Lok Sabha election is three years away, this initial coalition-building has begun with the realization that opposition parties need to create a coherent and coherent narrative against the BJP to take advantage of the public’s dismay as a result of the loss. Life and economic devastation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There have been other catalysts as well. Buoyed by a sweeping victory over the BJP in the West Bengal assembly election, Chief Minister and TMC (Trinamool Congress) chief Mamata Banerjee also visited the national capital to meet opposition leaders, including the Congress, establishing herself as a potential linchpin. Anti-BJP Coalition. Earlier, NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) strongman Sharad Pawar had also talked to the opposition leaders. These developments have prompted the Congress to stake its claim for a leadership position in the opposition sector.
However, the issue of leadership seems to be the least concern among non-Congress opposition parties. Most leaders agree that the electoral success of any opposition alliance will depend on practical seat-sharing, which will be guided by the organizational strength of the various parties in different states. “There was no need to even discuss leadership. There is a general consensus that we will follow the model of cooperative federalism. Whichever party is strong in a particular area, it will lead in that area. So, if the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) has to perform well in Bihar, the Congress will have to perform even in those states where it is in direct competition with the BJP. There is no friction,” says RJD Rajya Sabha MP Professor Manoj Kumar Jha.
While this seems a workable plan on paper, it is the performance of the Congress that will ultimately determine the success of the alliance. It remains the only party with a pan-India presence, making it the axis of the coalition by default. Yet electorally, it currently looks the weakest of all opposition parties. In 108 Lok Sabha seats across 11 states (see graphic, head to head), the Congress and the BJP are in almost direct contests. In 2019, the Congress won only five of these 108 seats, securing a vacancy in seven states.
The success of any opposition alliance will depend on the performance of the Congress in the elections to around 300 Lok Sabha constituencies.
There are 205 more seats in 10 states where the Congress is either the dominant party or a major player (see graphic). In 2019, Congress won 41 of these seats, with 31 seats coming from only three states- Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab. Its performance in the recently concluded assembly elections in five states does not show any significant change in its fortunes. In Tamil Nadu, it was a junior party in the DMK-led coalition. In Assam, where it won three seats in 2019, it was second to the BJP. Even more worrying, it also failed to effectively challenge the ruling Left in Kerala, where it won 15 seats in 2019, its highest number from any single state. The infighting in Punjab, where it won eight seats, does not bode well for the party either.
It is, therefore, not surprising that election strategist Prashant Kishor, who helped Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu win the assembly elections earlier this year, identified nearly 300 Lok Sabha seats, From where Congress should start planning. Now for the winning bid in 2024. He has already approached the Congress expressing his desire to join the party and has also presented a detailed plan to revive the party’s fortunes. Even as he was in touch with Mamata, Pawar and other opposition leaders, Kishor made it clear that the opposition alliance cannot succeed without the Congress.
However, the grand old party will have to set up its own home in order to produce results. The immediate task is to end the ambiguity over its leadership. Ever since Rahul resigned, taking responsibility for the 2019 Lok Sabha defeat, Sonia Gandhi has been serving as the interim Speaker. But that didn’t stop Rahul from hitting the shots. The emergence of Priyanka Gandhi as the third power center has added to the confusion. Seeking to end this arrangement, 23 Congress leaders, now known as G23, wrote to Sonia Gandhi in August last year demanding an organizational change, including election for the post of president. Although an election was promised, it has been repeatedly postponed due to the pandemic. The party is likely to hold this election by the end of this year, though it is not clear whether anyone from the Gandhi family will contest. Given his active involvement in decision-making – particularly in the appointment of state Congress chiefs and leading the party in Parliament – it is almost certain that Rahul’s official return is imminent.
MMeanwhile, a subtle challenge has been thrown at his leadership by some members of the G23. Celebrating his 74th birthday on 8 August, Congress Rajya Sabha member Kapil Sibal hosted a dinner for almost all top opposition leaders except the Congress leadership. In attendance were NCP chief Sharad Pawar, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, SP (Samajwadi Party) chief Akhilesh Yadav and Trinamool’s Derek O’Brien. Some G23 members including Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari and Anand Sharma were also present as representatives of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) of Punjab and BJD (Biju Janata Dal) of Odisha.
Sources say that the reorganization of the Congress was one of the major points of discussion. There was a general consensus that the Congress has to lead from the front, but it needs to strengthen its internal structure first. Some leaders openly said that the Congress can be transformed only if the party is “free from the clutches of the Gandhis”.
However, top Congress leaders do not deviate from these narratives. “I am not going to comment on a person’s guest list for his birthday celebrations,” says Congress general secretary and in-charge of the party’s communications department, Randeep Singh Surjewala. which has repeatedly attacked lives and livelihoods and compromised India’s national security and territorial integrity. The opposition parties agree that the focus of our alliance is to save the country’s core fundamental values by getting rid of the Modi government. He will have to work with Congress to achieve this.
The presence of former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav at Sibal’s dinner also makes some opposition leaders wary of doing business with the Gandhi family. He refrained from being a part of any meeting of Congress-led opposition parties, even excused himself from the August 20 meeting called by Sonia Gandhi. Other prominent leaders who have avoided such meetings include BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) chief Mayawati and Delhi Chief Minister and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
There has also been some disagreement among opposition parties about his general narrative. For example, at the August 20 meeting, several leaders objected to making the Pegasus spying scandal a major discussion point, saying such a technical issue was unlikely to resonate among rural voters.
However, these hurdles have failed to dampen the enthusiasm in the opposition camp. TMC’s Derek O’Brien says, “In Olympic hockey matches, we saw how teams’ fortunes changed every quarter. “It has been only three months since the BJP was wiped out in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Let’s wait for the other quarters. The match isn’t over yet.” n
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