Israel remains resolute more than 10 months into its longest war since the fight for independence 76 years ago.
Israelis, far from despairing, are holding onto hope for the Jewish state’s future. They’re confident of victory in Gaza, largely secure in their personal safety, and more willing than not to see their sons and daughters head to the front lines.
This optimistic outlook is captured in a recent Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) survey released on Sunday that, between August 7 and 11, asked 772 Jewish Israelis and 200 Arab Israelis various questions about the war and the country’s overall situation.
In a time of media narratives both here and abroad that paint Israel as a nation on edge – threatened by Iran and Hezbollah, anguished over hostages, and divided over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the government – these results are as striking as they are counterintuitive. The survey reveals a country that, despite everything, still believes in itself.
Yet the poll also uncovers a stark divide between Israeli Jews and Arabs in how they see the situation.
For example, while 67% of Israeli Jews believe the country will bounce back and flourish after the war, only a quarter of Arab Israelis share this optimism. Nearly one-half of the Arab population is pessimistic about the future of the country, compared to just 30% of Israeli Jews.
These differences aren’t limited to general outlooks – they extend to expectations about the war’s outcome. Seventy percent of Jewish Israelis are certain the IDF will triumph in Gaza, but only 26% of Arab Israelis agree. The divide is just as stark when it comes to the prospect of war with Lebanon: 76% of Jews are confident in victory, while just 32.5% of Arabs feel the same.
What does this tell us? It’s not just about differing views; it’s about trust. A significant portion of the Jewish population still places enormous faith in the IDF, even though both were caught way off guard on October 7. That day shattered confidence in the military’s readiness, but their response in the days following has restored much of that faith.
It’s telling that 83% of Jewish Israelis still trust the Air Force, and 78% trust the army – despite the colossal failures of October 7. Confidence may have been shaken, but it wasn’t broken. The way the military fought back has convinced many that victory is within reach. After all, how can you believe your country will win a war if you don’t trust in the strength of its armed forces?
However, this confidence in the military doesn’t extend to the government. Only 20% of the Jewish population trusts the leadership, a number that speaks volumes about how people feel the war is being handled at the top.
The greater trust in the military than in the political echelon, even though that both bear responsibility for October 7, is also reflected in nearly 50% of the Jewish population and 45% of the general population saying they have confidence in the Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen Herzi Halevi, while only 31% of the country’s Jews and just over a quarter of all Israelis expressed confidence in Netanyahu.
Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah likes to depict Israel as living in fear of his organization’s capabilities. But this poll tells a different story – one of a nation not cowering before Nasrallah, but ready to face him head-on.
Support for broad military campaign against Hezbollah
When asked how Israel should respond to Hezbollah’s attacks, 27% of Jewish Israelis support launching a broad military campaign against Hezbollah, including occupying parts of southern Lebanon, even if it risks a regional war.
This sentiment is striking, especially given that nearly 25 years ago, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon under Ehud Barak, dismantling any buffer zone with Hezbollah. Now, more than a quarter of the Jewish population and 23% of the general public – undeniably influenced by the war’s impact on Israel’s northern communities where tens of thousands of residents were evacuated – believes the country should reoccupy that territory.
Another 25% of the Jewish population believes that Israel should initiate a wider military action in Lebanon to counter Hezbollah attacks, again at the risk of a regional war, though they stop short of advocating occupying Lebanese territory. A majority of the country’s Jews (52%), therefore, want to see much more than the limited and localized actions the IDF has undertaken inside Lebanon so far. Clearly, the long war hasn’t drained Israel’s resolve or its will to fight.
And Israelis are not only willing to take the battle to Lebanon. While 54% of the country’s Jews believe Israel should take diplomatic action to forestall a direct war with Iran, almost the same percentage (52%) think the current situation calls for direct military action against Iran.
And large numbers of Israeli Jews are advocating for more aggressive military policies, fully aware that their children may bear the burden.
When asked how they would act if they had a son or daughter about to enlist in the IDF, and whether they would encourage their sons or daughters to join combat units, 30% said they would, 22% would not get involved in the decision, another 27% would encourage enlistment but not into a combat unit, and only 13% said they would not encourage them to enlist into the army.
Similarly, 49% of the respondents with a family member who has already served since October 7 in the reserves said they would encourage them to show up again if called, while only 18% said they would not, 17% said they did not know what they would do and the rest added various conditions.
Perhaps the most surprising finding relates to personal security. Despite the threats of rockets from Iran, missiles from Hezbollah, and terror from Judea and Samaria, only 25% of the country’s Jews feel insecure, compared to 45.5% of its Arab population.
For Jewish Israelis, internal social and national tensions are a greater concern (51%) than external security threats (39%). This greater concern with internal divisions and issues could paradoxically be the proverbial silver lining here – after all, we have more control over our own society than over external threats.