Putin’s war against Ukraine is more about his domestic political position, but it has already laid the foundation for a new global order that is unlikely to his liking.
by Harsh V Pant
As the Russian offensive against Ukraine continues, it is clear that the world has entered a more dangerous phase. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not only caused havoc in Ukraine, but also changed the landscape of European security, which will echo far and wide. What began as a smart game of diplomatic maneuvering by Putin has turned into an urban siege, where Russian leaders may or may not be able to accomplish much on the battlefield, as a result of which they have to face considerable losses in the long run. There will be loss. Strategic and even operational, the success is likely to yield little strategic advantage for Russia as nations around the world assess the impact of one of the most profound changes in global security in decades.
After retreating in the initial few days and facing stiff resistance from Ukraine, Russia is likely to go all out in dismantling Ukraine. He wants to destroy the country to such an extent that he does not even think of joining the Western camp and eventually establishes a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. Russia has the military means to do this and Putin has every intention of doing so in the name of “demilitarization” and “de-nazification”. The fact that the Russian military did not perform as well in the early days as many had predicted only makes it more likely that Putin wants the Russian military to demonstrate its power to its fullest.
It was he who prompted Putin to resort to the madness of issuing a nuclear threat at such an early stage. At first, he merely warned that “no matter who tries to stand in our way or even more so threatens our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, And the consequences will be like you’ve never seen in your entire history.” And then 24 hours after the invasion was announced, he announced that Russia’s nuclear forces were put on high alert.
Nevertheless, for all Putin’s apparatus, it is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has won hearts and minds. Not only has he emerged as a charismatic leader in times of national crisis for Ukrainians, he has also inspired a large part of the world in his support. With his speeches and social media posts challenging Russia, he has ignited a new sense of nationalism among Ukrainians that shuns any attempt by Russia to forcefully occupy Kyiv or install a powerful government. will make it difficult. Zelensky, in his address to the European Parliament, outlined Ukraine’s fight to be recognized as an “equal member of Europe”, even as he insisted that the country no longer “exist” at war with Russia. fighting for”. Russia’s aggression and Ukraine’s resistance have united Europe as never before and stifled voices that until a few days ago were talking about recognizing Russia’s legitimate security complaints.
After the Ukrainian President formally sent an application to Brussels, the European Union, in a show of defiance, has decided to proceed with membership talks with Ukraine. And Europe has now moved ahead with one of the most remarkable changes in its foreign and security policy that would have been unimaginable just a few days ago. Russia has relied on European unity and reluctance to take concrete action. But, facing one of the most significant challenges since the end of the Cold War, the EU proceeded with targeting the Russian financial sector as well as imposing sanctions on Russian state media and arms shipments to Ukraine. have come together to impose strong sanctions. Even Switzerland, a forever neutral state, has decided to freeze assets belonging to Russian President Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as well as key Russian oligarchs.
Although the most significant development has taken place in Germany, the European economic superpower has now decided to significantly increase its defense spending, recognizing the volatility of its currency where its economic power has been a function of US security guarantees. Germany will now increase its military spending to above 2% of GDP and invest 100 billion euros in a fund for its armed services. In a major change from its post-World War II policy, it has removed some restrictions on sending German-made weapons to conflict zones, enabling third-party countries to send weapons to Ukraine as well. This is happening despite Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian gas, and the message is unmistakable that history is indeed back in Europe.
Trans-Atlantic relations have become active again. In contrast to the effect Putin wanted with his threats, Finland and Sweden are now seriously considering joining NATO. In his State of the Union address this week, US President Joe Biden announced that the US was joining European allies in closing its airspace to Russian planes. Hinting at weakening Russia’s military in the future despite Russian gains in Ukraine’s battlefield, Biden underlined that the West was “blocking Russia’s access to technology that could undermine its economic strength in the coming years.” and weaken its army.” The economic sanctions imposed on Russia have been severe and major companies such as Apple, Google, Wade And Exxon Mobil has gone against Russia, leaving Russia’s currency, the ruble, down to the value of less than a penny. The Russian oligarchy has been the target of a lot of sanctions, and as their fortunes run out, their relationship with Putin could become strained as well.
For Putin, this crisis is more about his domestic political situation. If his firm stance against Chechen rebels made him a national star and if his 2014 Crimea campaign boosted his popularity ratings, he would hope that the invasion of Ukraine would give him another lease of life. Taking a stand against NATO, it is also expanding its domestic support base. After all, the growing reach of NATO and the European Union in the Russian periphery poses a greater threat to Putin’s political future. He framed this as a threat to Russia by arguing that NATO itself is not the real problem, but “the territories adjacent to Russia, which, I have to note, are our historical land, have a hostile ‘anti-Russian’ shape.” taking” and “Russia cannot feel secure, developed and exist in the face of a lasting threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine.”
So Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has really shaken up his political prospects in the world and at home. But if the Cold War did not end in 1990, this war also would not end with the wreck of Ukraine. This has already laid the foundation for a new global order that Putin is unlikely to like. After all, strategy without strategy is the noise before defeat. India, like the rest of the world, should not be swayed by immediate battlefield realities, but should carefully assess the long-term costs and opportunities arising from this crisis.
The author is Director of Research, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi and Professor of International Studies, Department of Defense Studies, King’s College, London.