Voters in Turkey return to the polls on Sunday to decide whether the country’s longtime leader extends his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade or is ousted by a challenger who has vowed to restore a more democratic society. has promised.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been at the helm of Turkey for 20 years, is favored to win a new five-year term in a second round runoff after coming just short of outright victory in the first round on May 14.
The divisive populist six-party coalition candidate who has turned his country into a geopolitical player and leader of Turkey’s centre-left main opposition party Kemal Kilikdaroglu finished four percentage points ahead.
Erdogan’s “good” performance came despite catastrophic inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake three months ago.
Kilicdaroglu described the runoff as follows.
Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-oh-loo), a 74-year-old former bureaucrat, described the runoff as a referendum on the country’s future. More than 64 million people are eligible to cast a ballot.
Voting started at 8 am
There are no exit polls in Turkey, but preliminary results are expected within hours of voting closing at 5 p.m.
Why is Türkiye’s election important?
The final decision could have implications far beyond Ankara because Turkey stands at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and plays a key role in NATO.
Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and buy Russian missile defense systems, prompting the United States to pull Turkey out of the US-led fighter jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a key deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and averted a global food crisis.
What are the expectations?
The May 14 election saw an 87% turnout, and strong participation is expected again on Sunday, reflecting voters’ devotion to the polls in a country where freedom of expression and assembly have been suppressed.
If he wins, Erdogan, 69, could remain in power until 2028.
After three terms as prime minister and two as president, the hardline Muslim who heads the conservative Religious Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader.
The first half of Erdogan’s term included reforms that allowed the country to begin negotiations to join the European Union and economic growth that lifted many people out of poverty. But he later moved to clamp down on freedoms and the media and concentrated more power in his hands, especially after a failed coup attempt that Turkey says was orchestrated by US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gülen. was gone – a claim the clerics deny.
Erdogan wants to keep maximum power with himself
Erdogan transformed the presidency from a largely ceremonial role into a powerful office through a 2017 referendum that overturned Turkey’s parliamentary system of government. He was the first directly elected president in 2014 and won the 2018 election which marked the beginning of an executive presidency.
The May 14 election was the first such election that Erdogan did not win outright.
Critics blame Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies for skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis. His government was also blamed by many for the slow response to the earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.
Nevertheless, Erdogan has retained the support of conservative voters who are dedicated to raising the profile of Islam in a country founded on secular principles and increasing the country’s influence in world politics.
Erdogan’s attractive last minute offers
To woo voters hard-hit by inflation, he raised wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s indigenous defense industry and infrastructure projects.
He also focused his re-election campaign on a promise to rebuild earthquake-hit areas, including building 319,000 homes within the year. Many look to him as a source of stability.
Whereas, Kilicdaroglu is a soft-spoken former civil servant who has led the pro-secular Republican People’s Party, or CHP, since 2010. relations with the West.
In a frantic do-or-die effort to reach nationalist voters in the runoff, Kilikdaroglu vowed to deport refugees and ruled out any peace talks with Kurdish militants if elected.
Many in Turkey regard Syrian refugees as a burden on the country who are under Turkey’s temporary protection after fleeing the war in neighboring Syria, and their repatriation became a key issue in the election.
Earlier in the week, Erdogan received the endorsement of a third-place candidate, nationalist politician Sinan Ogan, who received 5.2% of the vote and is no longer in the running.
Meanwhile, a staunchly anti-immigrant party supporting Ogan’s candidacy announced that it would support Kilikdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu’s defeat would add to a long list of electoral defeats for Erdogan and put him under pressure to step down as party chairman.
Erdogan’s AKP party and its allies retained a majority of seats in parliament following the legislative election held on 14 May. The parliamentary election will not be repeated on Sunday.
Erdogan’s magic continues despite earthquake devastation
Erdogan’s party also dominated the quake-hit region, winning 10 of 11 provinces that have traditionally supported the president. Erdogan came forward in the presidential race in eight of these provinces.
As in previous elections, Erdogan used state resources and his control of the media to reach voters.
After the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of the spread of false information and online censorship as evidence that Erdogan had an “unfair advantage”.
Observers also said that the elections showed the resilience of Turkish democracy.
Erdogan and the pro-government media portrayed Kilikdaroglu, who had gained the support of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, as colluding with “terrorists” and supporting what they described as “deviant” LGBTQ rights.
Kilicdaroglu “receives his orders from Qandil,” a reference to the mountains in Iraq where the leadership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, is based, Erdogan said repeatedly at recent campaign rallies.
“We receive our orders from God and the people,” he said.
The election was being held to mark the 100th anniversary of the country’s establishment as a republic, following the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
(with inputs from agencies)
Also read: Turkey fought fiercely to go to the second round; Erdogan’s fate at stake. Key details