Third wave will come in January: IIT’s first data analysis on Omicron, third wave will peak in February with 1.5 lakh daily cases

After the case of Omicron variant in India, the third wave of corona virus can come in the beginning of the new year i.e. in January 2022. This fact has come to the fore in a data analysis conducted on the Omicron variant by IIT Kanpur Professor Manindra Agarwal. During the first and second wave of Corona in the country, the data analysis done by Professor Agarwal regarding Corona was in the news.

According to Professor Aggarwal, the number of cases will come down only due to restrictions on night curfew, crowd gathering. On the fear of the dangerous Omicron variant spreading around the world and the fear of third wave, Manindra has studied the data from South Africa to other countries and has drawn important analysis about India. Interview of Dainik Bhaskar Professor Manindra Agarwal regarding this –

Question: Omicron variant of corona is spreading rapidly all over the world. Its cases have also come in India. According to the data study you have done, what will be its impact on India?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: We have drawn our conclusions from the data we have received from South Africa regarding the Omicron variant. The third wave is likely to knock in the early months of next year, January and peak by February. When the peak becomes in February, the daily Kovid cases can go up to 1.5 lakh. The Omicron variant had arrived in South Africa only a few months ago, but its infection was spreading very slowly. The reason behind this was that more than 80% of the people there have got natural immunity. These are people who have already been infected and have recovered. Because of this, there are very few people who were likely to be infected, but Omicron cases have increased rapidly in recent times.

The third wave of Kovid may knock on the new year

Question: What will be the speed of the spread of Omicron in India?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: Another study has come from South Africa about how much the Omicron variant is able to deceive people’s natural immunity. It has been found that Omicron is more likely not to bypass natural immunity, but it spreads twice as fast as the delta variant. We estimate that Omicron will spread twice as fast in India as well. In India also, about 80% people have natural immunity. It will have the most impact in the first month of next year, ie January.

Question: What will be the effect of Omicron variant on school going children, day working people, women?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: A lot is yet to be revealed about Omicron, but the question is, are fully vaccinated people getting infected with Omicron? We have seen that even the delta variant could infect vaccinated people, but its health is very mild. If a similar situation happens with Omicron, there will be recovery after some cough and cold, fever. It is unlikely to have much effect in children as well. There is no need to worry or fear too much, but do be careful.

Question: What will be the effect of the Omicron variant on people who have not had their vaccinations and who have taken only one dose so far?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: If you have taken only one dose, then definitely take that second dose. Don’t avoid it. At the same time, those who did not take a single dose of the vaccine, they must get the vaccination done.

Question: If the infection of Omicron variant increases, then what kind of restrictions can be seen in India?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: From the study of the delta variant, we have understood that very strict lockdown is not of much use. Mild lockdown has been more effective. Put a lockdown in crowded areas, there should be no crowd in closed places, people should wear masks properly. Even if all the shops, markets, transport are not closed, then the infection can be prevented from increasing. Governments should impose some restrictions, but refrain from strict lockdowns. There is a weekly change in the daily Kovid case. Very few Kovid cases come on Sunday and Monday. Kovid cases start increasing from Tuesday and peak on Thursday, Friday.

Question: So far natural immunity has also developed in people regarding Kovid, is Omicron variant Is it able to infect people by breaking natural immunity?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: Everyone is feeling that due to Omicron, reinfection will increase. Meaning that once who has been infected with Kovid, Omicron will infect him again, but it is not so. So far only one study has come about this, in which it has been found that the reinfection has increased 3 times during the last 3 months. Even if this is accepted, then its figures are very less. Only 1% of those infected in South Africa have been infected for the second time, so this is a very small number in this sense. With time, the chances of infection for the first time decrease. Chances of reinfection increase. The increase in the number of reinfections is inevitable. From the data we studied, it was found that Omicron is slightly bypassing natural immunity, but it is not having a very fatal effect.

Question: What changes does the government need to make in its strategy to counter Omicron and the threat of a third wave?

Pro. Manindra Agarwal: I think there is no need for the government to come in a tizzy and impose too many restrictions. It is true that there is a fear of any new variant. Caution is needed, but there is no need to impose too many restrictions. The rest of the government has more information, they will take decisions according to their study.