The peak of the third wave of Corona is near: IIT Madras said – by February 6, the maximum number of cases will be there, the rate of spread of infection i.e. R value has also decreased

The peak of the third wave of corona in the country will come in 14 days. IIT Madras has claimed this in its study. It has been said that the cases of corona will reach the peak by February 6 i.e. in 2 weeks. The main reason for the third wave is believed to be the Omicron variant of Corona.

According to the study, the R value, which tells the rate of spread of corona infection in India, has decreased from 2.2 to 1.57 between January 14 and January 21. In such a situation, the third wave is expected to reach its peak in the next 15 days.

The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) recorded an R value of 1.57 between January 14 and 21. It was 2.2 between January 7 and 13. Between January 1 and 6 it was at 4. Last year between December 25 and 31, the R value was close to 2.9. All these analysis have been done by IIT on the basis of computational modeling.

What is R value?
The R value shows the spread rate of the corona. Which tells how many people a person infected with corona is infecting. If the R value is more than 1 then it means that the cases are increasing and if it goes below 1 then the epidemic is considered to be over.

Worrying situation in Delhi and Chennai

The preparations are being kept complete even though the cases of corona are less. The photos are from Delhi where an isolation ward has been made in the banquet hall opposite LNJP Hospital.

According to the figures that have come out, Mumbai’s R value was found to be 0.67, Delhi’s 0.98, Chennai’s 1.2 and Kolkata 0.56. Dr. Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, said that the data from Mumbai and Kolkata shows that the peak of corona infection there is now on the verge of ending. Whereas in Delhi it is still close to 1 and in Chennai it is more than 1.

R value depends on three things
Jha said that the R value depends on three things – the risk of spread, the contact rate and the likely time interval in which the infection can occur. He said that now with the increase of quarantine measures or restrictions, it is possible that the rate of contact may come down and in that case the R value may decrease.

We can give this number based on the analysis, but it may change. It depends on how action is being taken on gathering of people and other activities.

Schools are being reopened in Mumbai after the cases of Corona are reduced. Before this, sanitization is being done here.

Contact tracing is not happening, so cases are coming less
Jha said that one of the reasons for the low number of cases could also be that according to the new guidelines of ICMR, the need for contact tracing has been removed. According to this, there is no need to trace those who came in contact with corona infected people. That is why the cases of infection are coming less than before.

Omicron reaches the stage of community transmission
The Omicron variant has reached the community transmission stage in the country. This has become extremely effective in many metros, where new cases are increasing rapidly. The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) has given this information in its new bulletin.

INSACOG also said that Omicron’s sub-variant BA2 has also been found at several places. The first case of Omicron in the country was reported on December 2 last year. Therefore, within just 7 weeks, the community transmission stage has come.

INSACOG is investigating changes in the coronavirus nationwide to help understand how it is spreading and developing. Along with this, INSACOG also gives suggestions about better measures to deal with it.