Thackeray government in safe zone even after losing elections: 164 in support, 123 MLAs in opposition; Fadnavis is the first choice of small parties and independent MLAs

In the Rajya Sabha elections held in Maharashtra, the political equation of the state has completely changed due to the defeat of the Thackeray government in one seat. With this defeat, it has become clear that the first choice of small parties and independent MLAs in the state is now former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. However, even after the defeat in the Rajya Sabha elections due to the support of 164 MLAs, the Maha-Vikas Aghadi (MAVIA) government led by Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is currently in the ‘Safe Zone’.

Mavia’s support incident while BJP’s increased

In the Rajya Sabha elections, former Union Minister Praful Patel (NCP) got 43 votes, Sanjay Raut (Shiv Sena) 41 votes, Imran Pratapgarhi 44 and Sanjay Pawar got 33 votes as the first choice of MLAs. In this way, a total of 161 votes were directly in favor of the Thackeray government during the Rajya Sabha elections. If one vote rejected by Shiv Sena MLA Suhash Kande is added to it, 162 MLAs are still standing in favor of the Maviya government. Similarly, two more votes of NCP jailed Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik, taking the support of MLAs to 164 if the Thackeray government comes together.

Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke from Andheri (East) seat, out of the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, currently has a total of 287 MLAs due to the death of a heart attack. Thus, the magic figure of majority is 144 at present, while the Thackeray government has the clear support of at least 162 MLAs, even in the current tumultuous political situation. It is a matter of concern that till now she herself claimed to have the support of 168 to 170 MLAs. Whereas the ground reality is that small parties and independents are getting disillusioned with Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray.

Miracle of former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis
For former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, the victory of three BJP candidates in the Rajya Sabha elections is proving to be lifesaving. Under the leadership of the BJP in the state, the NDA is estimated to have the support of a total of 113 MLAs. This includes the support of 106 BJP MLAs, 1 Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, 1 Jansurajya Shakti Paksha and 5 independent MLAs. But during the Rajya Sabha elections, BJP candidate and Union Minister Piyush Goyal got 48 votes, Anil Bonde 48 votes and Dhananjay Mahadik got 27 votes for the first choice of MLAs, making it clear that BJP now has a total of 123 MLAs in Maharashtra. If in future 2 MLAs of AIMIM and 2 of SP become neutral and close to 10 independents come with BJP, then the government of Maharashtra will be in trouble.

6 more MLAs come in support of BJP
In Maharashtra, these three parties Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress have formed the Maha-Vikas Aghadi (MAVIA) government with the support of independents. Three MLAs of Bahubali MLA Hitendra Thakur’s party Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, who were with Maviya during the formation of the government, have now joined the BJP. Similarly, Karmala MLA Sanjay Mama Shinde, Loha MLA Shyam Sundar Shinde and Swabhimani Paksha’s Devendra Bhuyar have switched sides and joined the BJP.

What is Fadnavis’s strategy now?
Despite open voting in the Rajya Sabha, 123 MLAs voted in support of the BJP, the enthusiasm of former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has increased. This is the reason that for the elections to be held on June 20 on 10 seats of the Legislative Council, he has fielded another BJP candidate. Secret ballot system is going to be there in this election. Therefore, if there is a fierce cross-voting against the ruling party, then in the near future monsoon session, the opposition can bring down the Thackeray government by bringing a no-confidence motion in the house.

Based on the strength of MLAs, four candidates from BJP, two from Shiv Sena, two from NCP and one from Congress can easily win the election. But Fadnavis has fielded farmer leader Sadabhau Khot as a BJP-backed independent candidate in the Legislative Council elections.

On the other hand, Congress has fielded Mumbai Congress President Bhai Jagtap and former cabinet minister and Dalit leader Chandrakant Handore, despite the possibility of one candidate winning. If independent MLAs mobilize against Maviya in the Legislative Council elections like in the Rajya Sabha elections, then the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra government will be destabilized.