The INDIA bloc is predicted to sweep Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Elections 2024 with a seat tally between 36-39 seats, according to the News18 Mega Exit Poll released on Saturday evening following the culmination of seven-phase voting in general elections.
The News18 Mega Exit Poll is predicting 1-3 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance also predicted to fall in the same range. The Congress may get 8-10 seats in the state but it is its INDIA bloc ally Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) that is tipped to do the heavy lifting for the alliance. The INDIA bloc could get between 36-39 seats in Tamil Nadu. The opposition AIAMDK could be in trouble with the News18 Exit Poll predicting 0-2 seats for the party.
The neighbouring Union Territory of Puducherry is also predicted to go the Congress way. The lone Puducherry Lok Sabha seat had recorded 77.86% polling. The fight here is between the BJP’s A Namassivayam and Congress MP V Vaithilingam, who is seeking a successive term.
TAMIL NADU VOTER TURNOUT STATS
Tamil Nadu, one of the most-talked about states this election, witnessed a three-way race between the BJP-led NDA, the AIADMK and the INDIA bloc comprising the DMK, Congress and other parties.
The state recorded a voter turnout of 72.09% in the Lok Sabha polls held in a single phase on April 19. In 2019, the state had registered 72.44% polling.
While Kallakurichi in northern Tamil Nadu saw the highest voting percentage of 75.67%, Central Chennai recorded 67.35%, the lowest.
In Coimbatore, where BJP state president K Annamalai is facing a three-way challenge from DMK’s Ganapathy Rajkumar, AIADMK’s Singai G Ramachandran and Naam Tamilar Katchi’s (NTK) Kalamani Jaganathan, 71.17% voter turnout was recorded.
South Chennai, where BJP’s Tamilisai Soundararajan is trying her luck saw 67.82% polling. DMK’s Tamizachi Thangapandian and AIADMK’s J Jayavardhan are her main rivals.
Dharmapuri recorded the second highest polling of 75.44%. NDA ally, PMK’s Sowmiya Anbumani, DMK’s A Mani and AIADMK’s R Asokan are the main contenders here.
KEY CANDIDATES
- Tamilisai Soundararajan, BJP, South Chennai
- Pon Radhakrishnan, BJP, Kanniyakumari
- Karti Chidambaram, Congress, Sivaganga
- S Jothimani, Congress, Karur
- Kanimozhi, DMK, Thoothukudi
- Dayanidhi Maran, DMK, Central Chennai
- Singai G Ramachandran, AIADMK, Coimbatore
- J Jayavardhan, AIADMK, South Chennai
- O Panneerselvam, Independent, Ramanathapuram
- TTV Dhinakaran, AMMK, Theni
TAMIL NADU ELECTION CAMPAIGNING RECAP
The contest was largely three-way with ruling DMK, AIADMK and BJP leading respective blocs. It was marked by fierce campaigns and acrimonious debates, and a never-seen-before kind of spirited fight put up by the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to gain a foothold in the Dravidian land in 2024.
Arguably, the 2024 LS polls is the only one in recent history in which the BJP set the tone for campaign discourse by mounting attacks rather than being in defence by coming up with disclosures on Katchatheevu issue besides vehemently taking up other matters.
Katchatheevu issue led to a slanging match between the saffron party, led by a fierce K Annamalai, and the DMK-Congress combine.
While the BJP alleged betrayal by the DMK-Congress, the Dravidian and grand old parties posed questions on “Chinese incursions”. PM Modi’s campaign also saw Katchatheevu issue getting prominence to a great degree and he sought to pin down the DMK-Congress saying fishermen now pay the price for their betrayal.
The PM also dwelt on the drug menace, following the arrest of expelled office-bearer of the DMK, Jaffer Sadiq, by the NCB and the threat to “eradicate Sanatana Dharma.” In effect, Modi’s campaign was exhaustive in Tamil Nadu and he addressed rallies in several constituencies, including Chennai, Coimbatore, Vellore and Tirunelveli.
A PM visiting Tamil Nadu nine times before a Lok Sabha election was undoubtedly a first in the state’s history. It demonstrated the BJP’s resolve to break the electoral jinx it faces in the Dravidian land, almost on its own, with the support of only fewer allies, whose influence is confined to select regions.
Prime Minister Modi was in Kanniyakumari on May 30 again to meditate at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial to mark the end of the BJP’s Lok Sabha election campaign. Modi’s choice to meditate in Kanniyakumari also underscores the party’s South India push.
The Pattali Makkal Katchi, the BJP’s key ally has focused its energies in Dharmapuri, where Sowmiya Anbumani is in the fray.
DMK president and Chief Minister MK Stalin, the star campaigner of his party, led the campaign on the themes of social justice, his regime’s welfare measures and “dangers” the nation faced due to the BJP, which has wrecked fiscal federalism. A key focus of the DMK’s campaign was on its “battle” to get funds from Centre including for flood relief.
Tamil Nadu minister Udhayanidhi Stalin, son of MK Stalin, crisscrossed the state, held roadshows and targeted the BJP on a slew of issues including the “Madurai AIIMS being a non-starter”. Stalin Junior, who hogged the limelight last year for his controversial Sanatana Dharma remark, travelled to almost 121 locations across 39 constituencies, cementing his position as second-in-command in the party.
AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami was among the early birds on poll landscape and he addressed a rally of ally SDPI in January and said there is no need to project a ‘PM face’ to seek votes.
The main opposition party’s campaign was steered by Palaniswami, former CM and leader of opposition who took on the ruling DMK over every single issue that mattered, including alleged collapse of law and order and drug menace.
EXIT POLLS METHODOLOGY
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.
On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
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