by Sanjay PandaAll eyes are on Turkey after Sunday’s vote to elect a new president and members of the Grand National Assembly (parliament). With more than 99 percent of the votes counted so far, neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu have managed to cross the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright victory. The stage is set for an unprecedented second round run-off in what is expected to be a close contest that could go either way.
But why is the world watching Turkey’s presidential election so closely? The answer is not far to seek.
Situated at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, Turkey features prominently in the strategic calculations of many countries. In addition to being a NATO and G-20 member, Ankara’s geo-strategic importance makes it an important regional and global player by default due to its proximity to several neighboring hotspots.
India-Türkiye relations and its future
From India’s point of view, the election assumes significance in the context of changing the course of bilateral engagement which has failed to achieve its full potential despite historical, cultural and civilizational links. Some of the positive momentum seen in the last decade turned back at the behest of Ankara after August 5, 2019, when the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution was withdrawn. Turkey’s response and statements on India’s internal matter did not go down well with New Delhi, causing the relationship to sink to an all-time low.
In a purely bilateral context, there is no major issue in India-Turkey relations, while external factors have held the relationship hostage. The issues of Pakistan and Kashmir continue to be major irritants. Unfortunately, Türkiye sees India through the prism of Pakistan. Its biased approach on Kashmir is based on Pakistan’s narrative, echoing Islamabad’s anti-India rhetoric. Today Ankara is in a Catch-22 situation. It wants to engage with India economically and take post-pandemic cooperation to the next level while continuing its anti-India stance on Kashmir. The message from India is clear – it cannot be “business as usual” until Ankara undertakes a serious course correction.
There have been some positive developments in recent months with bilateral exchanges including meeting at the leadership level. While there cannot be a qualitative change in the relationship overnight, Turkey can carry on this momentum after the election. In the context of the G-20, the visit of the President to Turkey can also help focus on getting bilateral relations back on track.
From traditional to confrontational approach
Over the past few decades, especially since the failed 2016 coup attempt, Turkey has chosen a path that defies logic. Its aggressive posturing and confrontational approach, undermining alliances and even challenging its Western allies marked a departure from its traditional, non-interventionist, classic foreign policy approach that was cautious and particularly wary of the Middle East. Eastern conflicts were avoided. Strained relations with neighbors, favoring the Syrian opposition and close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood have increasingly isolated Turkey internationally. The change in approach under Erdogan has been a strategic miscalculation that has neither served its national interest nor helped revive its global image.
The West’s unease with Turkey has grown further in recent years with Ankara’s open defiance of its core security commitment to NATO. Ignoring heavy criticism from its Western allies, unilateral military intervention in Syria, purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense missile system, ending its participation in the US’s F-35 advanced fighter jet program, dramatic announcement that it is Europe For Syrian refugees, participation in Libya and repeated conflicts with Cyprus and Greece seeking EU membership are clear signs of Turkey’s intent that the West cannot possibly be any different. Although widely viewed as the bad boy on the block, no one can deny the intrinsic value of this troublemaker!
Overhaul of power dynamics under ErdoganOne
Turkey’s foreign policy orientation and its ever-evolving approach have a close domestic tie, reflecting the country’s internal dynamics. During the past two decades, Turkey has undergone a significant transformation under President Erdogan. After the 2016 failed coup attempt, the country’s power dynamics have been radically changed. In 2018, Turkey’s parliamentary system was replaced by an executive presidential system, a change that was further exacerbated. Today power is centralized in the Presidency and all other organs of government have been made largely redundant.
One of Erdogan’s priority areas has been to appeal to conservatives by strengthening political Islam, and to revive Neo-Turkism by restoring the glory of the Caliphate with Turkey assuming a leadership role in the Muslim world.
Socially, the country is today divided between Kemalist secularists and Islamists, and the division is increasingly widening in various regions. Externally, Turkey advocates a strong regional policy and has a clear desire to play a greater role in global affairs. But under Erdogan, Islam is increasingly becoming a factor in foreign policy choices.
Economic crisis a serious challenge
Meanwhile, Türkiye is facing a major economic downturn. Dwindling foreign exchange reserves, capital flight, hyperinflation, rising unemployment, the looming fear of food insecurity and tourism drying up are ominous signs. The current state of the Turkish economy can clearly be attributed to political tensions, flawed international relations and Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies.
In 2014, Erdogan projected a US$2 trillion GDP and US$25,000 per capita income by 2023. Three years before 2023, before the Covid outbreak, Turkey’s GDP was projected to drop from around US$900 billion to US$700 billion, and per capita income from around US$12,000 to US$8,500. A serious course correction is needed to stop this free fall.
The economic crisis is the most serious political challenge facing Erdogan since the 2016 coup attempt, and a main election issue of the opposition.
During the past two decades, if the ruling AK Party has consolidated its power, the opposition, which has represented a variety of forms, has helped the cause. Two months before the election, six opposition parties had unanimously agreed on a presidential candidate. With an active opposition moving forward with a sense of urgency ahead of the snap election and opinion polls predicting a close contest, Erdogan may be feeling the heat. The US, the European Union and Turkey’s NATO partners especially see a glimmer of hope in engaging with a more moderate pro-West Turkish president.
improving relations with western allies
Earlier, in 2021, Ankara launched a charm offensive to mend its deteriorating relations across the board, sensing widespread displeasure over Turkey’s aggressive regional posturing. It ramped up diplomatic efforts with a long list of countries, initially Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and later Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Greece and even resuming its strained relations with the United States. joined a long-term effort to There is now a growing realization that Turkey cannot continue to send mixed signals to its Western allies and NATO. Similarly the economic boom kept pace with the Saudis, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. There was limited access to Israel and even Greece to quell worrisome anger and calm the EU’s immediate concerns.
These bridge-building efforts are widely seen as a temporary reparations to address isolation and economic distress. A serious reset of Turkey’s foreign policy would mean giving up some of its key features. This would mean, for example, no longer favoring the Muslim Brotherhood and Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated movements, which go against Erdogan’s political Islam policy.
Turkey has been trying to strike a delicate balance between Kiev and Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Erdogan is aiming to turn this crisis into an opportunity and readjust Turkey’s position in line with the geopolitical reality. Since the beginning of the crisis, Ankara has sought to mediate between Moscow and Kiev. Turkey has supplied military equipment to Ukraine and has strongly condemned Russia’s military operations in the country in line with its NATO position. However, the Turkish government has also opposed the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia and has kept its airspace open to Russian aircraft. Having said that, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine is making it increasingly difficult for Turkey to balance its relations with Russia and the West.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provided an opportunity for Turkey to repair its strained relations with the US. Turkey’s support for Ukraine, particularly through exports of armed drones and diplomacy with Russia, has given Ankara an opportunity to buy the F-16 after the Biden administration suggested that such a sale would be against NATO and US security interests. can serve.
China Shelving
As far as China is concerned, the growing mistrust after the pandemic, though not expressed explicitly, ensured that the bilateral engagement was undermined. Türkiye’s national statement on 75th In 2021, the Third Committee of the UNGA for the first time strongly criticized China’s human rights violations in Xinjiang, citing its treatment of Muslim minorities, including Uighur Turks. This was unprecedented but shows that Islam is increasingly becoming a factor in foreign policy choices.
While the outcome of the second round run-off may be difficult to predict at this stage, Turkey’s Western allies hope to see in Ankara a president who does not send conflicting signals to the US, NATO and the European Union. Which reorganizes Turkey’s foreign policy by reducing it. Its aggressive posture in the region, identifying and actively engaging with strategic partners. Domestically, bringing back the parliamentary system, while giving space to the opposition, will be important for showcasing Turkey’s democratic credentials. Finally, prudent economic policies will help revive the bearish trend and attract foreign investment.
(The writer is former Ambassador of India to Turkey from 2020 to 2022)
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