It has so far been a stormy monsoon season, with heavy rains in the north-east and now the west coast, and so has the weather forecast. India The Meteorological Department (IMD) which often comes under criticism for its local weather forecast. Despite the forecast of the monsoon being in full swing, rainfall over the plains has been widely uneven and rain is continuing in some parts.
“We have tried to make things transparent. When people said it didn’t rain in Delhi, we showed the data which it did. Since the onset of the monsoon on 30 June, there have been widespread rains on 1, 2, 4 and 12 July, and sporadic or sporadic showers on other days. Urban areas show great variation in local weather due to interactions with land surface and other factors,” Director General of Meteorology (DGM) M Mohapatra said in an exclusive interview to News18.
The Meteorological Department says its forecast accuracy has improved significantly over the years. Till five years ago, it used to predict 24-hour weather with an accuracy of 60%, and now it is forecasting the weather with the same accuracy for the next five days. Lead times have increased, and the accuracy of one-day forecasts has improved by about 77%.
“We do not claim to be free of errors, but that error is being minimized and this is evident in the minimal loss of life and property during severe weather events. Unlike countries such as the UK or Japan, tropical weather conditions are Predicting is more challenging around the world,” he said. “But people’s expectations have also risen, and so has the demand for very local, specific forecasts. So, our next target is to improve this accuracy by 10-15%.”
From the announcement of monsoon in Kerala three days ahead to its slow progress in the country and subsequent rains, the weather agency has found itself constantly questioning its capabilities. The more than 140 year old organization is now focused on stepping up to meet its latest challenges.
gap in forecast
Acknowledging gaps in the prediction of small-scale events such as thunderstorms, Mohapatra said: “Weather forecasting is non-linear, dynamic and influenced by continuous interactions with land, surface, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and other weather systems. We try and parameterize it and feed the data into our model. But as we go for location-specific forecasting for small scale events, there are gaps. Worldwide, the accuracy is low, Because such events require meso-scale observations and models, which require high computing power. So this is our next objective.”
The Ministry of Earth Sciences is now working to upgrade computing power from 10 petaflops to 30 petaflops over the next two years to run the forecast model. The increased processing power will be supported by increased data observations from both automated weather stations as well as radar.
The IMD has set a target to increase its radar density from 34 to 65 in the next three years, which includes eight X-band radars in the North-East, three in Uttarakhand and 11 C-band radars in the plains. With a special focus on improving city forecasts, four new radars will be installed in Mumbai, one each in five other cities including Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Kolkata.
“Once the initial observations are corrected, it will naturally improve the model output and provide better forecasts,” Mohapatra said. “We will also need additional manpower, and we are in the process of recruiting that too.”
The department has also recently added two new models for forecasting thunderstorms – one specifically for the North-West, North-East and South Peninsular regions, and the other model that combines lightning data. assimilate. “Lightning is a killer, and India is among the five countries in the world that provide lightning predictions and warnings,” he said.
rise of extreme weather events
The increase in extreme weather events has intensified efforts to improve its forecasting capabilities. While there has been a wave of joy with the early onset of monsoon, it has so far wreaked havoc on the northeastern states, causing deadly floods and landslides. The calamities have now shifted to the west coast covering Gujarat and Maharashtra.
According to the IMD, the trend of extremely heavy rainfall over Gujarat is “the heaviest rainfall period of this monsoon season” considering all the rounds so far over the plains this season.
Elaborating on the situation, the senior scientist said: “Flash foods are natural in case of any extreme rainfall event over the North-East and even the Gujarat region. Importantly, from the point of view of climate, these are places that often receive heavy rainfall events. It’s all part of the uncertainty of the weather. But there has certainly been an increasing trend in the number of days of heavy rainfall.”
progress of monsoon
With 13 per cent higher monsoon rainfall across the country as a whole, the IMD remains optimistic about the performance of the southwest monsoon, which is critical to India’s agricultural economy.
“Till June 15, the rains were deficient. The above normal rainfall was confined only to south peninsular India and northeastern states, causing very high intensity floods, especially in Assam and Meghalaya. But after mid-June the monsoon picked up intensity and is continuing. For July alone, it has rained more than 35% so far,” said Mohapatra.
Till July 14, about 29 out of 36 sub-divisions have recorded above-normal rains, although Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Kerala have been deficient in monsoon. According to the IMD chief, the seasonal rains will maintain momentum and will now move towards the Indo-Gangetic plains after July 15. According to the latest forecast, rainfall is likely to be above normal over Northwest India in the next two weeks.
“La Nia conditions (cool surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) continue, and a favorable low pressure system is forming in the month of July. Overall, the large-scale circulation suggests that good rains will continue and the weather will change.” There will be normal rains as per the forecast. Monsoon still has plenty of time,” the IMD chief exuded confidence.
The latest assessment shows that the previous week ended July 13 was the wettest week of the monsoon season so far, with the entire country receiving over 50% rainfall.
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