Crunching Numbers: The breach of the 200,000 mark for daily reported COVID cases in the UK has raised a new fear about Omicron’s speed of transmission. Not to forget for a moment that the figure of 218,724 is essentially only a fraction of the actual spread, even if it includes a backlog of cases piled up from certain sectors. The new figures oddly include a reduction in the number of deaths by some 48. But with Tuesday the first working day after the New Year holidays, the figures for the next few days will be more clear.
Dangerous trend: However, there is no doubt that the weekly average of hospitalizations and deaths is increasing by almost 50 per cent. They are of course real numbers and not estimates. As a fraction of the overall spread, these are still only a small number. But as the WHO warns, a relatively small fraction of the larger overall number can still mean a lot. There are already more patients coming to the UK than there is room for many hospitals.
Vaccine Vaccination: The pattern is now clear that the vast majority of those hospitalized in critical condition have not been vaccinated. In the UK this would mean people who have refused vaccination despite strong pressure from the government and the recent massive uptick. One in five people in the UK are still not vaccinated, and that number is many. Most others are lucky enough to have relatively mild Omicrons made mild by effective types of vaccination, meaning Pfizer and Moderna.
Little Protection: The prevalence of omicrons in India, by percentages and patterns in the UK, may only be gaining momentum, leading to a temporary round of hospitalizations, and a rush to hospital care for which there is not enough capacity. It doesn’t help that in the face of Omicron, practically the whole of India is as good, or as bad, as the uninfected, given the far less protection that double immunization with AstraZeneca provides. India’s best defense now is immunity developed through earlier exposure and infection.
‘Keep a booster for the weak’: Sir Andrew Pollard, who was the lead scientist in developing the AstraZeneca vaccine deployed in India as CoveShield, now says it is not necessary for most people to be vaccinated regularly. They say it is neither practical nor economical. Not many people in Africa have taken a dose, and developed countries are now planning their fourth. But boosters should be placed specifically for vulnerable people, he says. The AstraZeneca vaccine has proven largely ineffective against Omicron.
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