The US needs to recognize that Yahya Sinwar, the Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, who is well aware that his time is running out, will not agree to any deal that does not involve a significant withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing, along with assurances from both the US and Israel that he will not be assassinated.
Yahya Sinwar is a dead man walking. His cruelty and direct responsibility for the October 7 massacre have sealed his fate. The large number of terrorists killed each minute is of no concern to him; in fact, their deaths continue to fuel his false narrative.
The Palestinians, who have turned their self-victimization into nationalism, use the Al-Jazeera news network to showcase the ruins of Gaza and the hundreds of dead terrorists within it to the world.
Sinwar, whose attempts to expand the conflict to an all-out war on other fronts have failed so far, is hiding in a tunnel, trying to figure out his next move. The odds are against him, and he knows his time is nearly up. He has shown no flexibility so far, but soon, he may have no choice.
He is waiting for the war to expand in the north, and if that doesn’t happen, he will be forced to give in. Sinwar is frustrated and helpless in the face of Israel’s unexpectedly harsh response, the deaths of his closest associates, and what seems like a complete lack of support from Iran.
Iran has a lot to lose, and its leaders are well aware of this. The US’s display of strength by deploying aircraft carriers and submarines to the region has been enough to deter Iranian leadership for the moment. The US is not interested in an all-out war in the region.
With the US presidential elections approaching in November, a war with Iran could severely damage the global economy, raising oil prices and potentially increasing Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances of election.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is frustrated by the failure of his attempted attack on Israel on Sunday. His false claims about a “precise” strike on Israeli military positions reveal his frustration and fear but also allow him to close the incident, at least for now.
Can Lebanon survive a war?
Wiam Wahhab, Lebanon’s former Minister of Environment and a close ally of Hezbollah admitted in an interview that if war were to break out, Lebanon could become the next Gaza. It’s clear that all parties involved, especially the US and Iran, are interested in keeping the conflict contained.
Israel cannot remain silent as its soldiers and civilians are killed, their homes destroyed, and their land burned in the north, where Hezbollah’s attacks are relentless.
Now that Hezbollah’s most recent attack has failed, Israel cannot wait for the Shiite group to initiate the next round, with or without Iranian involvement. Israel must act to reduce the Hezbollah threat. About 70,000 Israeli citizens are displaced, waiting to return to their homes.
Israel must demand the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, given the slim chances of reaching a diplomatic solution that satisfies Israel, there is a real possibility that the IDF may carry out an operation in Lebanon.