Reports that Russians are moving military hardware 250 kilometers from the border have raised eyebrows in Washington. And Ukrainian forces have deployed combat drones on the edge of the war to separate them from pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region.
On Monday, US Defense Department spokesman Admiral John Kirby said the Pentagon was “aware of public reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine.”
Satellite imagery has shown Russian hardware – including self-propelled guns, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – moving to a training ground about 186 miles (300 km) from the border.
But Ukraine’s defense ministry said on Monday it did not record “additional transfers of Russian units, weapons and military equipment across Ukraine’s state border”.
On Tuesday, the Defense Ministry said an estimated 90,000 Russian troops were located “near the border and in temporarily occupied areas” as well as in the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s defense ministry said Russia had established a practice of “transferring and depositing military units with the aim of maintaining tension in the region and political pressure on neighboring countries”.
Kirby said the US is watching closely: “I can’t speak for Russian intentions, but we are certainly monitoring the region closely, as we always do. Any offensive or aggressive action combined.” “This state will be of great concern to America.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday: “The movement of our military equipment or army units on the territory of the Russian Federation is exclusively our business.
“Russia has never threatened anyone, is not threatening, and does not pose a threat to anyone,” he insisted.
Observers say it is worth keeping a close eye on Russia’s activities.
“At the moment it’s a developing situation. It’s ‘nothing is happening,’ and it doesn’t mean there will be an offensive tomorrow,” says Michael Kaufman, a fellow at the Wilson Center who researches Russia’s military.
Claims of ‘stimulus’
But there is hope that through negotiations sponsored by European governments the frozen conflict can be reduced and the US is dying.
Russia has reacted sharply to the use of Turkish-made fighter drones by Ukraine for the first time in the conflict. One of those drones struck a separatist position last week.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian state television on Monday: “We observe attempts to carry out provocation, get some feedback from the militias and drag Russia into some sort of combat action.”
Popular Russian TV host Vladimir Soloviev went further, adding that Ukraine was provoking the separatist-held “republic” to “take retaliatory measures, which means a major war. Under these circumstances, Moscow will face a difficult choice.”
Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine has hardened in recent months.
President Vladimir Putin and his predecessor Dmitry Medvedev have both written essays describing Ukraine as a vassal of the West – even to suggest that it is not a real country.
“True sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia,” he wrote.
east to west axis
Moscow’s strategy aims to deter Ukraine’s flirting with close ties with NATO and the European Union, an east-to-west axis that would fuel historical Russian fears of encirclement.
When the former Soviet Baltic states joined NATO, their fear deepened, as did many former members of the Warsaw Pact such as Romania and Poland.
Ukraine joining NATO would be an “extremely dangerous” move that would trigger Russia’s retaliation, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko retorted.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Peskov condemned “aggressive expansionist tendencies, especially on the part of NATO and other countries”, adding that “Russia has always taken measures to ensure its security and to do so.” continues”. have to keep.”
The US, which already supplies Ukraine with anti-tank missiles, also pledged to support Ukrainian forces through security assistance, including efforts to increase the country’s maritime capability. American warships regularly patrol the Black Sea – much to the wrath of Russia.
According to Ukraine’s Naftogaz chief executive Yuri Vitrenko, “Putin is telling everyone to his face: ‘You turn on the NS2 or you won’t get any more gas.
The White House said over the weekend that US President Joe Biden had spoken with German Chancellor Angela Merkel about “efforts to ensure that Russia cannot manipulate natural gas flows for harmful political purposes.”
As of yet, there are no signs that all hostile language is translating into a higher level of hostility known as the “line of contact”, but the Russian calculation is never easy.
.