The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is all set to win 12 out of the total of 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam while the opposition INDIA bloc will not be able to open its account in the state and the remaining two seats will be go to the AIUDF and Bodoland People’s Front, as per the News18 Mega Opinion Poll.
This is close to chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s prediction of 13 out of 14 seats, but a clear mandate for the saffron party nevertheless. This will be a massive improvement for the party as it won nine out of the 14 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Its vote share is also predicted to significantly increase to 49 per cent as compared to 36.1 per cent last time.
CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95 per cent of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
Notwithstanding Sarma’s confidence, the political scenario seems tense in Assam after the central government implemented the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, or CAA, weeks before the all-important polls. The state had witnessed violent agitations against the act in 2019 during which five people were killed.
The security in the state has been beefed up, with different organisations protesting against the legislation. The North East Students’ Organisation (NESO), the apex body of major student unions in the eight states of the region, had on Wednesday (March 13) burnt copies of the rules of CAA, while the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) staged ‘satyagraha’ in all district headquarters.
The chief minister, however, has claimed that the law remains completely insignificant in Assam, from where there will be the least number of applications for Indian citizenship. He said the act is clear that the cut-off date for application of citizenship is December 31, 2014, and in Assam, with the National Register of Citizens (NRC) being updated, people who applied for it and did not find their names in that list, will only apply for CAA.
A key state, Assam is the gateway to the northeast and shares international boundaries with Bangladesh and Bhutan. Before 2014, the Congress had a substantial hold, but after that the BJP has consolidated itself in the state’s tumultuous identity politics, stemming from the ULFA movement that was partially resolved last year after 44 years of insurgency.
Also, this will be the first poll in Assam after the Election Commission of India (ECI) carried out the delimitation exercise for the state last year, which was strongly criticised by the opposition parties alleging that it was done to help the ruling BJP. There are a total of 14 Lok Sabha constituencies and 126 assembly segments in the state, where the BJP is in power.
What is the 2024 political scenario?
The main contest will be between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc.
The BJP is fighting in alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is contesting alongside Assam Jatiya Parishad and the CPI(M). Other minor parties in the play include the AAP, TMC, National People’s Party, AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front among others.
The BJP will be contesting 11 seats while it has given two seats to the AGP and one to the UPPL. The saffron party will be contesting on the “double engine development” plank with the tagline ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ in focus.
The Congress, meanwhile, has announced candidates for 12 out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats. It has offered one seat to Assam Jatiya Parishad, while there is no decision yet on the remaining constituency. One of the prominent names contesting is Congress deputy leader in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi, who has got a ticket from Jorhat.
What happened in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls?
In the 2019 general election, the BJP won nine out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats while the Congress won three, AIUDF bagged one seat, while another was won by an Independent. This was the saffron party’s highest tally in the state yet, while the Congress registered a decline in vote share.
The BJP had a vote share of 36.1 percent, while the Congress and AIUDF had 35.4 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively.
About the survey
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each constituency, three Vidhan Sabha segments were chosen. Five polling booths were selected in each assembly constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Using a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling. A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geotagged to verify its authenticity.