Uttar Pradesh saw an intense fight between NDA and INDIA. (PTI)
News18 Mega Exit Poll: Uttar Pradesh sends 80 parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha. The state voted in seven phases for the Lok Sabha elections
Uttar Pradesh is likely to give 22-25 seats to the Bharatiya Janata Party, according to News18 Mega Exit Poll prediction for the first three phases which covered 26 seats. The Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is likely to win three-six seats, according to the prediction for the first three phases.
The state which sends 80 parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha, voted in seven phases. Uttar Pradesh has also given India the maximum number of prime ministers. The state’s importance is not limited to its numerical strength in the Lok Sabha.
Among the key candidates in the 2024 polls were Narendra Modi (BJP, Varanasi), Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ (BJP, Azamgarh), Dimple Yadav (SP, Mainpuri), Akhilesh Yadav (SP, Kannauj), Rahul Gandhi (Congress, Raebareli), Arun Govil (BJP, Meerut), Hema Malini (BJP, Mathura), Rajnath Singh (BJP, Lucknow), Smriti Irani (BJP, Amethi).
Other notable candidates include Maneka Gandhi (BJP, Sultanpur), Ravi Kishan (BJP, Gorakhpur), Afzal Ansari (SP, Ghazipur), KL Sharma (Congress, Amethi), Dharmendra Yadav (SP, Azamgarh), Sakshi Maharaj (BJP, Unnao).
In the 2019 elections, proving all arithmetic of the SP-BSP ‘mahagathbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh wrong, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal(S) won 64 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, demolishing the alliance partners, which got 15 seats between them. The Congress won the lone Raebareli seat of Sonia Gandhi in the politically crucial state. Of the alliance partners, the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was the biggest gainer with 10 seats. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) won five seats and the smallest of the partners — Rashtriya Lok Dal — couldn’t open its account in the polls. The Congress’s biggest loss was in its bastion Amethi where then party president Rahul Gandhi was defeated by union minister Smriti Irani, who had lost the seat in 2014.
THE METHODOLOGY
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.
On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
Exit poll predictions are not foolproof given a large number of variable factors. The pollsters, however, had succeeded in gauging the trend in 2019 and 2014.