Exit polls have predicted that the BJP in the two major farming states of Punjab and Haryana in north India, may retain its ground overall. What it might lose from Haryana is likely to be compensated from advances in Punjab.
According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll, at least two to four seats are projected for the BJP in Punjab, which has 13 seats. This means the BJP could double its tally from 2019. The Congress, which won eight last time, is likely to retain that number or even improve it to 10. The AAP, which is the ruling party in Punjab, maybe wiped off the Lok Sabha chart from the state. In the best case scenario, too, AAP may get only one seat here. In any case, even if the BJP gets two seats in Punjab — the lower end of the prediction — that means it has held fort.
In Haryana, the BJP won all 10 seats last time, but may even end up with half that number this time. While the lowest prediction says five, the party can go up to seven. The Congress tally is likely to revive at three and may hit five.
In Punjab this time, at least four prominent sides are in the fray, along with a couple of outliers who are making waves in their respective constituencies.
In 2019, the Congress, which was then in power in the state, won eight of the 13 seats, while the SAD and BJP, which were in an alliance, won two seats each. The AAP managed only one seat, Sangrur won by Bhagwant Mann. From being a lone ranger for AAP in Lok Sabha, he who went on to become CM with a humongous majority in the assembly in 2022. There was significant oscillation, evidently, from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to the 2022 state polls. And there was even more volatility this time, which means results remain hard to predict.
A four-cornered battle this time, as againt a three-way fight in 2019, is because a long-standing alliance between Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP has since been severed by the SAD over the issues of farm policies. They fought the assembly polls in 2022, too, separately, and performed poorly.
On the other side, the state’s ruling AAP and main opposition Congress have been engaged in what many term a friendly fight. While in several other states the AAP and Congress are in a pact – and together in essence in the INDIA bloc too — they are the two biggest power centres and direct rivals currently in state politics, making an alliance impossible. However, analysts have said their choice of candidates has been strategic to not cut into each other’s votes.
For the AAP, Bhagwant Mann’s persona and state government’s policies such as free units of electricity were two major campaign thrusts. But there is general dissatisfaction and despondency, both towards the state government and, rather more severely, towards the central government. The AAP is hoping that dissatisfaction with the Centre will help it sidestep its own weaknesses.
The Congress has focused on national issues mainly, focusing around PM Narendra Modi’s alleged missteps, particularly on farm policies and federalism, while its candidates have also pointed towards the Mann government’s alleged failures at the state level. The party has top leaders in the fray to manage seat-wise optics as well, especially in Ludhiana, Sangrur and Jalandhar.
The Akali Dal led by Sukhbir Singh Badal is hoping to get some solace from the results on two counts – one, that it still has electoral sway after two consecutive defeats in assembly polls; two, that the BJP as a partner is not necessary for it to perform well, particularly in urban seats.
The BJP, which has so far failed to make a dent beyond being a junior partner of the Akali Dal for many years, appears to have micro-managed the campaign, moving between local issues such as AAP government’s performance; to state issues like the Kartarpur corridor having been opened; to its big-ticket national campaign pointers like Article 370 and Ram Mandir. For candidates, though, it is banking heavily on turncoats and party-hoppers, suggesting a lack of deep roots in rural areas in particular.
But such a shift of allegiances is not unique to the BJP. This is most visible in Jalandhar, where the candidates of BJP, AAP and the Akali Dal are all recent turncoats. In a confused despondency thus, two independent candidates with allegiance to radical or separatist beliefs appear to be emerging strong.
One of them is Amritpal Singh, who is currently in jail in Assam’s Dibrugarh. He is fighting from Khadoor Sahib, a constituency where religiosity and echoes of the militancy days are seen as factors. Another somewhat similar candidate is Faridkot’s Sarabjit Singh. He is the son of Beant Singh, who was hanged for his role in former PM Indira Gandhi’s 1984 assassination.
This strange and constantly churning mix of candidates, alliances and allegiances has again underlined a policy and leadership vacuum in the state. Many cited this vacuum as the reason for AAP’s rise in Punjab, particularly the 2022 mega-win in the assembly elections. But, surprises are likely still, as the vacuum keeps throwing up options.
How was the News18 Mega Exit Poll conducted?
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.
On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
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