as the systematic return of the west Afghanistan Falling into a panic-stricken race for the exit tomorrow, the question remains: How did the Taliban, in such a short period of time, defeat a large army with superior weapons?
After all, Afghan security services had 180,000 combat troops to call in, while even the most moderate estimates of the Taliban’s strength put it at 85,000 fighters.
The answer lies largely in the case of hard cash in the form of prosecution. Many Afghan soldiers had not been paid for months.
There have been widespread reports that ever since President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops, corrupt Defense Ministry officials in Kabul have earmarked money for soldiers’ salaries in their own offshore bank accounts in Zurich (Switzerland) and Doha (Qatar). has deposited. are depositing. )
The Afghan security services were to call in 180,000 combat troops, while the most moderate estimates of the Taliban’s strength put it at 85,000 fighters. Photo of Taliban fighters above
Without the support of bloodthirsty Taliban fighters on the one hand and American Marines on the other, it is hardly surprising that so many unpaid government soldiers surrendered and handed over their weapons, often out of funding from the enemy. With an additional incentive of $500 to visit their home.
Some were even ready to take off their uniforms, grow beards and join the winning side.
The Taliban is certainly ready to show such generosity. Thanks to its hold on Afghanistan’s billion-dollar opium trade and revenue from a growing number of customs points, its income has increased in recent weeks.
The great Prussian Field Marshal Moltke used to tell students at the Military Academy that ‘the greatest good deed in war is a quick end to war’. He meant that a drawn out battle for supremacy would only increase the mortality rate of both sides. You could argue that the Taliban’s takeover of power over Afghanistan in a matter of weeks shows that they have accepted the Moltke theory.
They were carried from city to city without fighting and without any bloodshed, which many feared. In the short term, at least, they will focus on consolidating power rather than seeking retaliation.
He has certainly shown his shrewdness in the past. The Taliban may be fanatical, but they are not fools.
There have been widespread reports that ever since President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops, corrupt Defense Ministry officials in Kabul have earmarked money for soldiers’ salaries in their own offshore bank accounts in Zurich (Switzerland) and Doha (Qatar). has deposited. are depositing. )
Once a city is over-run, one of their first priorities is to ensure that those who operate utilities such as water works and electricity supplies come to work.
And when it comes to imposing law and order, they do not hold back. If you are prepared to hang people from lamp-posts and cut off their hands, the protest ends relatively quickly.
People may not like banning their daughters from going to school, and ordering their wives to be fired and wear burqas, but most people will quickly come to the conclusion that resistance is useless.
Yet despite its claims of being a different animal from the old Taliban, the reality is much darker.
Reports abound of killings for revenge, with 12-year-old girls abducted from their families and married to Taliban fighters, and people beaten up for violations such as playing pop music.
So the future of the people of Afghanistan is grim – but it could have dire consequences for us in the West.
Thousands of Taliban prisoners have been released from government-run prison camps in the past few days.
Their numbers are likely to be al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorists who came from overseas to fight the Americans in Afghanistan. Now they are out in the open and free to plot terrorist attacks on us in their own country or in the West.
This debacle, in addition to the Americans’ hasty withdrawal from Saigon in 1975, is the existence of small cells of radical Islamists who would be driven by our humiliating return from Kabul.
Without the support of bloodthirsty Taliban fighters on the one hand and American Marines on the other, it is hardly surprising that so many unpaid government soldiers surrendered and handed over their weapons, often out of funding from the enemy. with an additional $500 incentive for their home visit
Then there was no Viet Cong cell in London waiting to be activated. Today things are different.
The humiliation of the West in Afghanistan has brought Islamic fundamentalism back on track.
Looking at the Russians three decades ago and the Americans of today, their sense of invincibility almost certainly fuels fundamentalism.
Let’s hope our domestic security services are more aware of the threats than the Foreign Office and MI6 was about the stability of the cards in Afghanistan.
Worse for the wider world is the reality that rivals from the West such as Russia, China and Iran are watching us run with our tails between our legs.
What other small allies of ours, whose armies are lavishly trained and equipped on the Afghan model, can be carried forward?
Britain has not enjoyed such an inauspicious ‘holiday’ season since August 1939.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford
.