New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the formation of a low pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and its intensification is expected to severely affect the progress of monsoon towards the Kerala coast in the next two days. .
However, the Meteorological Department did not give a possible date for the arrival of monsoon in Kerala. Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said the onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on June 8 or June 9, but it is expected to make a “moderate and light entry”.
The cloud mass is more organized and concentrated over the southeast Arabian Sea due to the formation of a low pressure area and there has been some reduction in clouds off the Kerala coast, the IMD said.
The IMD said at around 9:30 am on Monday that the low pressure area is very likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a depression over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.
It added that the formation and intensification of this system and its north-northwestward movement are likely to have a severe impact on the advance of Southwest Monsoon towards Kerala coast. Skymet Weather said the low-pressure area is expected to intensify into a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea and may further strengthen around mid-week.
It added, “These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the inland progress of the monsoon. Under their influence, the monsoon current may reach the coastal parts, but will struggle to move beyond the Western Ghats.”
Skymet had earlier predicted the onset of monsoon over Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days. “South-West Monsoon is likely to fall within this bracket. Precipitation is required for the initial criteria on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall will increase on June 8 or June 9. may meet these requirements.
However, the start of the annual event may not have started with as much of a bang. “Initially it may only make a gentle and light entry,” the private weather forecasting agency said. (IMD) said that monsoon can reach Kerala by June 4.
The southeast monsoon had arrived last year on May 29, 2021, June 3, 2020, June 1, 2019, June 8 and May 29 in 2018. Scientists said that a slight delay in reaching Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will reach. Late in other parts of the country. Furthermore, it does not affect the total rainfall in the country during the season.
The IMD had earlier said that despite the development of El Nino conditions, India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Normal to less than normal rainfall is expected over Northwest India. East and Northeast, Central and South Peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long period average of 87 cm.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the LPA is considered ‘deficit’, 90 to 95 per cent ‘below normal’, 105 to 110 per cent ‘above normal’ and more than 100 per cent ‘excess’. . ,
Normal rainfall is critical to India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area dependent on it. It is also important for replenishing reservoirs important for drinking water apart from power generation across the country. Rainfed agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of the country’s total food production, making it a significant contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.