Officially, the IDF probes of October 7 will only be disclosed to the public starting in mid-July, but already late Wednesday night, Channel 12 reported leaks of some of the key findings, with the IDF notably not denying the report.
Although the IDF also did not confirm, it has been aggressive in denying various other leaks about failures related to October 7, so the complete silence in the face of this latest report was telling.
According to the report, the IDF probe will find numerous cases of: friendly fire errors leading to tragic deaths of groups of IDF soldiers who were too hesitant to confront Hamas invaders (even as some groups rushed to fight who had not yet been summoned), of higher up commanders ordering some groups of soldiers to remain in a reserve second line capacity when they should have headed into the front, and specifically of not knowing how to handle complex battlefield questions involving hostages in Beeri.
What will the consequences of the findings be?
One of the consequences of the findings to date, some of which are final, but some of which are interim, could be freezing the promotion of Brig. Gen. Barak Hiram to ascend to the post of commander of the Gaza Division.
Hiram has been one of the most controversial commanders of the war.
On one hand, he allegedly gave controversial orders to fire on residential units which included both Hamas terrorists and hostages, potentially killing the hostages.
Even this narrative is debated, as his attack order may have been focused on saving his soldiers who were under fire, and it is also debated as to whether there was any way to secure the hostages release without attacking the Hamas guards who held them.
In any event, the other side of the coin has been that after October 7, Hiram was highly successful in a number of battles.
Further, his command skills were viewed as significantly responsible for ousting Hamas from Beeri at a time when other nearby commanders had been killed or had fled.
This means that some hostage families would raise an outcry if he were given that Gaza Division command, while many in the military would object if he is not given the command, viewing him as one of the most successful and battle-tested commanders.
On June 5, the IDF announced that it would start presenting its probes related to Hamas’s October 7 invasion and the following ongoing Gaza war on a rolling basis during the months of July and August.
Aspects of a major probe on the IDF and defense establishment’s general national security and defense concept related to Gaza and Hamas over the years will be presented by key officers to IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi already in early July, but will only be publicized to the public later in the summer after they are integrated with other issues.
Details of the probe
This probe will look all the way back to 2018, but not earlier.
The IDF said that it expected that as part of an eventual state inquiry and eventual State Comptroller report, such probes might look further back in time, but that if the IDF had gone back further than 2018, it would have also meant delaying publicizing the results to the public.
Further, the IDF said that it would be problematic to delay explaining what happened on October 7, including the failure to prevent Hamas’s invasion, much past this point, given that by August already 10 months will have passed.
The first probes which will be publicized will likely be in mid-July, with the probe of the invasion and battle for the Gaza border village of Beeri potentially being the first.
IDF Maj. Gen. Mickey Edelstein is leading the probe on Beeri.
Besides Beeri, there are around 40 probes of other individual battles which occurred in the South relating to October 7 which will be publicized on a rolling basis from mid-July and through August.
A probe specifically on the events of October 6 leading up to the Hamas invasion and specific warnings and operational moves made or not made during that period will likely be publicized in early August.
The IDF started the process for the probe in March.
Despite the IDF probe, most defense officials are calling for a state inquiry which would also probe the decisions and actions of the government.
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had opposed any state inquiry, fearing its political consequences for his coalition.