Kerala may see around 4.6 lakh covid cases from 1-20 August: Central team
A six-member central team, which visited eight districts of Kerala, has said that from August 1 to August 20, the state could see around 4.6 lakh COVID-19 cases.
Dr Sujit Singh, Director, National Center for Disease Control (NCDC), who led the central team, said opening up of activities, the Onam festival (August 20) and the reopening of tourism are challenging scenarios and a cause for concern. press conference here on Tuesday.
Kerala accounted for more than half of the COVID-19 cases reported in the country in the last seven days, the Center said on Tuesday.
Singh said a large number of re-infections have been recorded in the southern state even after being given two doses of the vaccine and the issue is being investigated.
For example, 14,974 people got infected with the virus after receiving the first dose and 5,042 after receiving both doses of the vaccine in Pathanamthitta (as per information shared by the district).
According to the report submitted by the team, the Kovid-19 positivity rate was found to be more than 10 percent in all the eight districts and at some places it was found to be increasing. More than 80 percent of the cases were of the delta version of the virus.
“Contact-tracing was found to be extremely low – 1:1.2 to 1:1.7 – and the RT value, which was the lowest (0.8) on June 1, is steadily rising with the current RT value of 1.2,” Singh said.
Apart from NCDC Director, the central multi-disciplinary team includes Dr P Raveendran, Former DDG, Dr SK Jain, Advisor (PH), NCDC, Dr K Regu, Additional Director, Kozhikode Branch, NCDC, Dr Pranay Verma, Joint Director, NCDC Were. and Dr. Ruchi Jain, Public Health Specialist, Regional Office of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Thiruvananthapuram.
Singh said, “The current RT value of Kerala is 1.12. As per the current trend, the state can witness around 4.62 lakh Covid cases during the period from August 1 to August 20.”
The team visited Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Alappuzha, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram districts of Kerala.
During the tour, the team found that the containment zones (CZs) were not created as per the guidelines of the Centre, and the perimeter control and siege of the CZs was not strict. Besides, there were no buffer zones around the CZ, Singh said.
The test positivity rate (TPR) was found to be between 10 and 14 percent and in some areas between 15 and 20 percent. The TPR in Malappuram and Pathanamthitta was showing an increasing trend.
As far as health infrastructure for COVID care is concerned, Singh said the bed occupancy rate was found to be between 40 to 60 per cent in southern districts and 70 to 90 per cent in northern districts.
He said the bed occupancy rate for ICUs and ventilators in the worst-affected Malappuram district is 74 to 85 per cent higher.
The bed occupancy rate in the private sector was high and as per available data for May, June and July, 25-30 per cent deaths occurred within 72 hours of hospitalisation, Singh said.
The central team said that up to 80 percent of the cases were allowed to be kept in home isolation, but the home isolation guidelines were not followed.
“Lack of compliance with home isolation of suspects or cases and quarantine of contacts resulted in inability to contain the infection. Intra-house transmission was high, leading to frequent clusters,” Singh said.
There was a lack of passive surveillance and enforcement of guidelines with regard to pre-structured containment zone boundaries i.e. control strategy based on panchayats and number of people attending social and religious gatherings.
Singh said the prevalence of NCDs is around 30 per cent and sero prevalence is 44 per cent, which means that 55 per cent of the state’s population is still susceptible.
The difference between Kerala (44 per cent) and the rest of the country (65 to 70 per cent) is around 20 per cent.
Kerala’s population has a high proportion of older people due to the high life expectancy, contributing to the overcrowded pool. In addition, there is substantial national and international migration.
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