The Election Commission of India (ECI) seems set to hold the elections in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) next month as per the Supreme Court-mandated deadline of September 30, unless a red flag is shown by the security establishment.
If the elections do happen, people would be voting for a government in J&K after a decade. An Election Commission of India (ECI) team will be in J&K later this week.
This is a pivotal moment for J&K, which five years ago saw Article 370 being abrogated, Ladakh being carved out as a separate Union Territory (UT), and the state’s status being changed to a UT with a legislature.
Since then, violence has ebbed in J&K and the government’s own figures in Parliament last month validated the same, buttressing the ‘success story’ of normalcy returning quickly to J&K.
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J&K’s people showed the yearning to cast their ballot when a record 58.4% voting was recorded in the Lok Sabha elections this year. They are now eager to cast their votes for an election in J&K.
Surely if Lok Sabha polls could be held in J&K uneventfully, assembly polls can be held too is the word in the power corridors in Delhi. Peaceful conduct of the Amarnath Yatra is another case in point.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a visit to Srinagar this June, when he gave a historic address in the open in the Bakshi Stadium, said the day is not far for the elections to be held in J&K. Home Minister Amit Shah has said in Parliament that the government is committed to hold the elections in J&K by September 30, as mandated by the SC.
THE HURDLE
The ‘J’ (Jammu) in J&K is suddenly imploding with terrorist acts targeting the security forces, with all indications of state support to the infiltration from Pakistan. This is what may be the reason for the elections in J&K to be put off, if they are.
It is, however, also clear at the top levels in government that these terror strikes supported from across the border are aimed at derailing elections in J&K and to send out a message to the world that J&K is far from normalcy.
This itself is reason enough for the Centre to push ahead with elections in J&K to defeat the nefarious agenda of Pakistan. The government has shifted out the two top officers of the BSF, which is in-charge of guarding the International Border with Pakistan in the Jammu region, to fix accountability. More forces have also been sent to strengthen the counter-terrorism grid in Jammu region.
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Besides the Jammu disturbance, the last five years have been successful on the security front with stone-pelting incidents and organised strikes down to zero in 2023 as well as so far this year, compared to a total of 1,380 such incidents reported in 2018.
Terrorist-initiated incidents are down from 228 in 2018 to 46 last year and 11 till July 11 this year, while encounters or counter-terrorist operations have sharply declined from 189 in 2018 to 48 last year and 24 this year till July 11. The casualties of security forces are also down from 91 in 2018 to 30 last year, and 14 this year till July 11. Civilian killings are also down from 55 in 2018 to 14 last year.
Having J&K elections this September will be like sending out the best message of normalcy in J&K. The return of democracy and competitive politics to J&K would be the region’s true integration.
LOGISTICS
Availability of forces in J&K in September is not an issue as heavy posse of forces is already in the region for the Amaranth Yatra that concludes on August 19. Going by the ECI’s correspondence with the poll-bound states, J&K is being prepped up for the elections before Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The three states could go to elections in October-November once the forces are free from poll duties in J&K.
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The last date for final publication of electoral rolls in J&K is August 20, while for Maharashtra, it has been pushed to August 30, and to August 27 for Haryana and Jharkhand. The ECI has asked the states and UT to transfer out election-duty officers from their home districts by August 20.
The million-dollar question now is if the security establishment will give the go-ahead to elections in J&K this September, as the ECI’s final call will depend on the report of the Union Home Ministry and the State Police.
J&K is keenly watching the visit of the ECI team to the region on August 8-10.