Hezbollah continues to attack northern Israel daily. It also continues to suffer losses. On July 16 Iran’s IRNA said Hezbollah had suffered yet another casualty. This time it was a 60-year-old Hezbollah member from Bint Jbeil.
He is one of almost 300 Hezbollah members killed in nine months. While Hezbollah has suffered heavier losses than Israel, Hezbollah believes it is winning this round of conflict because Israelis are still evacuated from their homes in the north.
Hezbollah brags every two or three days about its accomplishments in attacks on the north. It said this week it targeted more IDF sites. However, overall, it seems Hezbollah is going through the motions, with daily attacks designed to keep the pressure on Israel while the Gaza war continues.
Hezbollah has said it will stop the attacks when the Gaza war ends. Israel is more circumspect. Israeli officials have said that Israel could continue operations against Hezbollah.
On July 16, the IDF said, “Earlier today (Tuesday), two Hezbollah terrorists were identified fleeing the area from which projectiles were launched toward Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday (Monday). Following the identification, the IAF struck the terrorists in the area of Mansouri in southern Lebanon.”
In northern Israel, the IDF is ready for any eventuality. It has been ready for many months, cycling units through training. This has meant training reservists and regular troops. The training involves numerous scenarios, usually training battalions or brigades.
They also train to work together with other components of their division or with the Israel Air Force, local police and security teams, emergency services, and the Navy. It’s all designed to be ready for a larger war in the north. Israel was always prepared for the big war in the north against Hezbollah. Now, that could also be against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and even Iraqi militias who want to travel to Syria or Lebanon to support Iranian-backed groups.
Waiting for Godot
However, Israel’s readiness takes the form of waiting for Godot, because Israel is bogged down in Gaza fighting Hamas. Therefore the northern front became the second front, rather than the major front that was expected.
It is now Gaza’s “tail” that is wagging the dog in this sense. This is not what the IDF originally had in mind nine months ago. But every plan is only good up until contact with the enemy. Now we have seen the enemy in Gaza, and we are waiting in the north. That is the sense.
Israel is on the defensive in the north. This means that Hezbollah and Iran have the initiative. They choose when and where to attack. Israel responds with precision proportionate strikes, usually on terrorist infrastructure. But there may be diminishing returns here.
The sense I’ve felt over the last months is that the IDF is ready. It is like a horse chomping at the bit, waiting for what comes next, but it has also been trained and trained and trained. It’s like a boxer who is ready for the arena but never gets to go in the ring.
Everything comes down to the political level and the decisions that may come. Israel has learned a lot in nine months of clashes with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also learned a lot. Hezbollah takes losses but it seems to keep coming. Israel can also learn from other modern conflicts, such as the Ukraine war.
Hezbollah is backed by Iran and Iran supplies both Hezbollah and Russia with drones and drone technology. This means that one could look at the conflicts and see how Iranian-backed groups or partners use a mix of drones and missiles to terrorize civilians.
This is what Russia and Hezbollah are doing. It is what Iran did on April 13 when it launched around 350 projectiles at Israel, and Iran’s proxies launched another 150 projectiles, such as missiles and drones, targeting Israel.
Cheap weapons are changing the battlefield. Most of these are cheap drones. However, Hezbollah also uses precision-guided munitions, ATGMs, and rockets to attack Israel. It’s not clear if Hezbollah is rebuilding its infrastructure that was damaged in a dozen villages near the border. Most civilians have fled from villages in southern Lebanon. The damage to Hezbollah adds up. But there is always more to be struck.
Israel’s IDF wants to help the civilians return to northern Israel. There are still 50,000 evacuees from northern Israel. Recently, four soldiers were wounded due to shrapnel from an interception that landed in Kiryat Shmona. Two Israeli civilians were killed in the Golan due to rocket fire. A soldier was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack on Kibbutz Kabri. This all shows the danger Hezbollah poses to the north.
Hezbollah and the IDF are learning. The big question will be whose learning curve is better. Both are bringing new capabilities to the front. Pro-Iran media recently said Hezbollah was using the Shahed 101 drone, which Al-Mayadeen media described as a better drone than Hezbollah was using in the past. The anti-tank guided missile threat is also a major problem in the north.