MUMBAI: The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at around 18.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, according to SBI’s research report Ecowrap.
This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimate. GDP growth Estimates of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter.
“Based on our ‘Nowcasting’ model, the estimated GDP growth for Q1 FY22 will be around 18.5 per cent (with an upward bias),” the report said.
Higher growth in Q2 of 2022 or Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of lower base.
State Bank of India has developed the ‘Nowcasting Model’ with 41 high frequency indicators linked to industrial activity, service activity and global economy.
The report expects Gross Value Added (GVA) to be 15 per cent in the first quarter of FY12.
The corporate results announced so far indicate that there has been a substantial recovery in corporate GVA EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization + employee costs) in Q1 FY22.
The corporate GVA of 4,069 companies registered a growth of 28.4 per cent in the first quarter of FY22, the report said. However, this is lower than the growth in Q4 FY21, thereby confirming the lower GDP estimate than before, it said.
The report further said that it has been noted globally that low mobility leads to lower GDP and higher mobility leads to higher GDP, but the response is heterogeneous.
With a fall in mobility, economic activity declines and thus GDP growth, however, with an increase in mobility, GDP growth does not increase in the same proportion, it said.
“The relationship between the two has weakened as can be seen in Q1 FY22 when the dynamics has decelerated, however, GDP growth is high and positive. But the higher year-on-year growth is mainly due to the base effect,” the report said.
Meanwhile, the Business Activity Index based on ultrahigh-frequency indicators shows further growth in August 2021, with the latest reading for the week ending August 16, 2021 at 103.3.
Power consumption revived in Q2 FY22 along with RTO (Regional Transport Office) collections, mobility indicators, indicating a positive momentum in economic activity, the report said.
This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimate. GDP growth Estimates of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter.
“Based on our ‘Nowcasting’ model, the estimated GDP growth for Q1 FY22 will be around 18.5 per cent (with an upward bias),” the report said.
Higher growth in Q2 of 2022 or Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of lower base.
State Bank of India has developed the ‘Nowcasting Model’ with 41 high frequency indicators linked to industrial activity, service activity and global economy.
The report expects Gross Value Added (GVA) to be 15 per cent in the first quarter of FY12.
The corporate results announced so far indicate that there has been a substantial recovery in corporate GVA EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization + employee costs) in Q1 FY22.
The corporate GVA of 4,069 companies registered a growth of 28.4 per cent in the first quarter of FY22, the report said. However, this is lower than the growth in Q4 FY21, thereby confirming the lower GDP estimate than before, it said.
The report further said that it has been noted globally that low mobility leads to lower GDP and higher mobility leads to higher GDP, but the response is heterogeneous.
With a fall in mobility, economic activity declines and thus GDP growth, however, with an increase in mobility, GDP growth does not increase in the same proportion, it said.
“The relationship between the two has weakened as can be seen in Q1 FY22 when the dynamics has decelerated, however, GDP growth is high and positive. But the higher year-on-year growth is mainly due to the base effect,” the report said.
Meanwhile, the Business Activity Index based on ultrahigh-frequency indicators shows further growth in August 2021, with the latest reading for the week ending August 16, 2021 at 103.3.
Power consumption revived in Q2 FY22 along with RTO (Regional Transport Office) collections, mobility indicators, indicating a positive momentum in economic activity, the report said.
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