India’s GDP Growth May Exceed 7% This Fiscal, Says Chief Economic Advisor

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Last Update: March 02, 2023, 18:33 IST

For 2019-20 also, the growth has been revised to 3.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent.

For 2019-20 also, the growth has been revised to 3.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent.

The second advance estimate released by the NSO on Tuesday retained the growth projection of 7 per cent, as projected in the first advance estimate released in January.

Chief Economic Advisor V Ananth Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the GDP growth for the current fiscal will exceed the estimated 7 per cent in view of the expected revision of high frequency data.

on Tuesday, second advance estimate Retained the growth forecast of 7 per cent released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) as projected in the first advance estimate which was released in January.

“Looking at the high frequency indicators and the speed at which they are recovering, I believe the current year (GDP numbers)… are more likely (to be) revised upwards than downwards,” he said here Said.

Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 159.71 lakh crore, while the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 was Rs 149.26 lakh crore.

The NSO had said that the real GDP growth during 2022-23 is estimated to be 7 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.

According to the data released by NSO, the growth rate slowed down to 4.4 per cent in the October-December quarter mainly due to contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Read also: GST collection to grow by 12% to Rs 1.49 lakh crore in February 2023; highest cess revenue

The NSO on Tuesday revised the GDP growth data for the last three years – 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 – and also released the second advance estimate of GDP for 2022-23.

While the growth rate for 2021-22 has been revised up by 40 basis points to 8.7 per cent to 9.1 per cent, the GDP for 2020-21 has also been revised from (-) 6.6 per cent to (-) 5.8 per cent. ,

For 2019-20 also, the growth has been revised to 3.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent.

Nageswaran said that rising interest rates are not necessarily the reason for low growth, but it reflects the fact that there is healthy underlying demand for loans.

He said that the real interest rate is not very high at the moment, there has been an increase in demand in some sectors.

On rural inflation persisting at a high level, he said it does not take into account the fact that a large population is getting its essential food grains at zero cost.

On the economic benefits of digitization, he said that digital transactions enable an increase in formality.

“My estimate is that it is adding between 30 and 50 basis points per year to provisional GDP… No one has yet properly estimated what digital infrastructure is adding to overall potential economic growth (and) Need to work on,” he said.

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