India Monsoon (Photo: PTI)
This comes just a day after India’s private forecaster Skymet predicted “below normal” rainfall this monsoon with 94 per cent LPA.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India is expected to see a normal monsoon between June and September this year with a long period average (LPA) of 96 per cent. M Raveendran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences told a media briefing that the IMD expects monsoon 2023 to be normal with a rainfall of 83.5 cm.
This comes just a day after India’s private forecaster Skymet predicted “below normal” rainfall this monsoon with 94 per cent LPA.
It said that along with Peninsular India, many areas of Northeast India and parts of West and Central India are also likely to receive normal rainfall.
The IMD also said that low snow cover over regions like Eurasia is favorable for the southwest monsoon.
El Nino effect
The IMD also said that El Nino effect could be seen in the second half of the monsoon, adding that the El Nino conditions turned neutral over the equatorial Pacific. The Meteorological Department, however, said that there is no one-to-one relationship between El Nino and Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
El Niño refers to a period of warm ocean temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every 2–7 years. During an El Niño event, the trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to migrate eastward and accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific. This ocean warming could have wide-ranging effects on weather patterns, including increased rainfall in parts of South America, drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, and warmer temperatures in North America.
The Meteorological Department said that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is positive for monsoon. It also said that neutral IOD conditions exist over the Indian Ocean.
What is a “normal” monsoon?
The IMD uses the Long Period Average (LPA) to determine whether rainfall is “normal”, “below normal” or “above normal”. Average over a given interval (like months or seasons) over a long period of time like 30 years, 50 years, etc.
Typically, in India, the 50-year LPA includes large variations on either side due to years of abnormally high or low rainfall due to El Nino or La Nina.
India defines average or normal rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 88 centimeters (35 in) for the four-month season starting in June.
IMD maintains LPA for the entire country at the national and local level.
what skymet said recently
While the IMD has forecast 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for this year’s monsoon, Skymet has recently forecast 94 per cent of the LPA for the same.
On 10 April, Skymet said in a note that India is likely to receive below normal monsoon rainfall. The weather agency said rainfall could be affected by factors other than El Nino. Mahesh Palawat, VP-Meteorology at Skymet Weather Services said that this year the monsoon season will be weaker than normal due to several factors.
“This time, we expect the monsoon to be 94 per cent of the long period average and El Nino will develop and it will be very strong in the second half of the monsoon. Apart from El Nino, we expect the Indian Ocean Dipole – South- West monsoon is another deciding factor which is not very positive,” he said on Monday.
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