Chief Economic Advisor V Ananth Nageswaran on Wednesday said the Indian economy is on track to achieve 6.8-7 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal and will be able to weather headwinds in 2023 with ease. He said that the pace of economic reforms is continuing and the GDP is at the average level of 2019-20.
“Overall, real GDP growth in 2022-23 is on track to be between 6.8-7 per cent,” he said, adding that data on festival sales, PMI, bank credit growth and auto sales showed that the economy has improved. The momentum was maintained despite strong global headwinds, especially higher input costs and monetary tightening.
After registering a growth of 13.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, the economic expansion slowed to 8.4 per cent in the July-September period. The growth rate in the first half (April-September) of the current financial year was 9.7 per cent.
The economic growth in the last financial year (2021-22) was 8.5 percent.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.8 per cent in this financial year, while the RBI pegs it at 7 per cent.
Nageswaran told reporters, “In an uncertain external environment and despite exports not being as good as last year, domestic demand will drive GDP growth… softening commodity prices and expectations of some good rabi harvest will keep domestic inflation higher.” expected to decline.” September quarter GDP figures
Stating that the global economic situation was very difficult in 2022, Nageswaran said, “we should be able to navigate 2023 global headwinds very smoothly”.
He said the economy continued its recovery from the pandemic and the GDP level was at a normal level in 2019-20 and the capital formation rate was similar to that of the first quarter at 34.6 per cent.
The Chief Economic Adviser in the Finance Ministry said growth was expected to moderate after a strong base effect in the first quarter as the economy is stable and moving towards a growth trend in the coming quarters.
“Overall at the end of the two quarters, India’s growth rate (is) 9.7 per cent in real terms and India’s growth trajectory is longer than that of other countries… India’s growth performance becomes credible in the light of commodity price shocks “The simultaneous tightening of monetary conditions that is still ongoing in parts of the developed and developing world,” Nageswaran said.
India, like other countries, is experiencing a tightening of global financial conditions as well as commodity price shocks after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February.
“India’s growth forecast which was north of 8 or 9 per cent at the beginning of the year has come down to between 6.8-7 per cent as global growth has slowed and monetary tightening is still in place and export growth will not “I am able to contribute as much as I contributed last year,” Nageswaran said.
Citing slowing global economy, Russia-Ukraine war, rising domestic interest rates and inflation, several agencies have downgraded India’s economic growth projections for the current fiscal year (April-March).
when World The bank has cut its growth forecast India 100 basis points to 6.5 per cent, the IMF has reduced it from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent. The Asian Development Bank has also reduced the projections to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier.
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