New Delhi: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has said that the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal (FY22) at 10.1 per cent is unlikely to stop due to the pace and scale of COVID 2.0. is. . It now expects GDP growth to be 9.6 per cent in FY22. However, this is dependent on India vaccinating its entire adult population by December 31. The average daily vaccination total during 1st to 20th June was 32 lakh which increased to 87.3 lakhs on 21st June.
Ind-Ra said that if the immunization pace remains close to the June 21 level, India will be able to achieve the target of 9.6 per cent. “If the immunization target is delayed by three months either due to the slow pace of vaccination or non-availability of vaccines, the GDP growth rate for FY22 will fall further to 9.1 per cent.”
Even before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Indian economy was witnessing a reduction in consumption. Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth slowed to 2 per cent in Q4 of FY20 from 11.2 percent in Q3 of FY17.
Covid 1.0 added to this as the lockdown had an impact on jobs, livelihoods and household budgets. PFCE fell to negative 26.2 per cent in 1Q FY21.
It has since recovered and Ind-Ra is expected to gain momentum this fiscal. However, it has received push back from Covid 2.0.
Ind-Ra expects PFCE growth to come in at 10.8 per cent, saying, “The push back of consumption demand in rural areas is expected to be more pronounced in rural areas as Covid 2.0 as opposed to Covid 1.0 also spread. “
No meaningful investment revival is possible before FY23 as manufacturing is still loaded with excess capacity, domestic demand is weak and balance sheets of Indian infra companies continue to stretch.
Almost normal monsoon this year means good agricultural production and income for the third year in a row.
Although agricultural income now accounts for only one-third of rural income, given its backward forward linkage with many non-farm rural activities, they together provide livelihoods to a large section of the rural population.
Ind-Ra expects agricultural growth to come in at 3 per cent in FY12. On the other hand, the industrial sector is expected to grow by 10.9 per cent year-on-year as industries were allowed to operate during the Covid 2.0 lockdown, unlike in the covid 1.0.
Services, especially its segments such as aviation, tourism, hotels, sports, entertainment and hospitality are still weathering the storm, again expected to grow 10.4 per cent mainly due to the low base of last year.
Even as GDP growth remains a major concern for policymakers, Ind-Ra said, adding that worrying signs have emerged on the inflation front. Read also:
Wholesale and retail inflation came down to 12.5 per cent and 6.3 per cent in May. It is too early to believe that retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent on a sustained basis, given the high base of last year.
Therefore, Ind-Ra expects average retail and wholesale inflation to come down to 5.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively in FY22. Read also: 7th Pay Commission: 60 lakh pensioners will get pension slip through WhatsApp, email
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