new Delhi: With an IIT-Kanpur study predicting a fourth wave of COVID-19 in July this year, the government on Thursday said it treats such studies with due respect but is yet to examine whether Whether the special report has scientific value.
Addressing a press conference here, NITI Aayog Member (Health) VK Paul said the IIT Kanpur study is a “valuable input” produced by eminent people.
“…it has been our attempt to look at epidemiology, its epidemiology, trend and virology. All estimates are based on data and assumptions and we have seen different estimates from time to time. They sometimes differ so much It would be very unsafe for the society to make decisions based on only one set of conjectures. The government treats these conjectures with due respect as they are scientific works produced by eminent people,” Paul said.
He said the government’s approach is to be fully prepared for the unexpected virus, but whether the IIT’s study has scientific value is yet to be investigated.
“We saw the news and found that this project is being done by a group at a particular institution. We want to see it published in a peer reviewed journal. We should look carefully at the notion that has been used. Only on one Inference or projection, one is not making any judgments of importance. We value it as an input. Does it have scientific value and the mathematical basis will be examined,” Paul said.
“Our approach is to be fully prepared for this unpredictable virus and at the same time carry out our work and activities in a responsible manner. We are regularly sharing with you our understanding and dynamics of the pandemic and how the nation is doing it. answering,” he said.
A modeling study conducted by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur suggested that the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may begin around June 22 and peak by mid- to late August.
The peer-reviewed study, recently posted on preprint repository MedRxiv, used a statistical model to make predictions, finding that a potential new wave would last up to four months.
The study, led by Sabra Prasad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Shankar Dhar and Shalabh of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur, suggests that the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new coronavirus variant and vaccination status across the country.
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