The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) report has estimated that the third wave of coronavirus infections in India is unlikely to be as devastating as the second wave. The study’s estimates are based on mathematical modeling. This “demonstrates the plausible mechanism by which a significant third wave can occur, while also showing that any such resurgence is unlikely to be as large as a second wave”.
According to the study, the plausible mechanism for the third wave may involve a new type of virus that causes COVID-19 that is more transmitted as well as being able to evade prior immunity. The mechanism may involve enforcing “lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission” of viral infections.