Goa elections are different this time – it is a sentiment that reverberates across the state, within the political establishment and electorate.
There are many firsts in the fight. This is the first time the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will contest all 40 seats; The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is fighting to gain the tag of a national party, from its current label of the regional party of West Bengal. Also, the first multi-cornered fight with regional parties from outside making an impact among voters. This is also the first instance where the BJP is missing its tallest leader in the state, Manohar Parrikar, to bail it out in case it falls short of a majority, and when his son is contesting against the saffron party’s candidate.
The seniormost leaders of the incumbent BJP have camped in the state to ensure that if there is a shortfall of seats to form the government, it must be ready to act immediately, to have everyone who can win and is not from the party on speed dial and stump the Congress again, like they did in 2017, when despite having four seats less than the Congress, it formed the government.
With a more alert Congress this time, the preparation needs to be airtight, with no scope for any legislator to slip out of its hand, in case the party needs to form the government with support from outside.
The Congress too has put its senior leaders from neighboring states, namely Dinesh Gundu Rao and P Chidambaram, to use anti-incumbency against the BJP in the state and to ensure voters that if they win as a single-largest party, the mandate won’ t be wasted for want of quick action required to round up those who can ally and form the government.
CATHOLICS: BJP’S PLAN TO PREVENT CONSOLIDATION
Despite the claims that Goa doesn’t have issues like communal tension, Catholic votes in the Salcete belt – Margao, Navelim, Nuvem, Benaulim, Fartoda, Cuncolim, Curtorim and Velim – have been a challenge for the BJP.
However, this time the party has tried to secure those votes on other seats, by giving tickets to influential Catholic leaders who defected from the Congress to the BJP in 2019, and also have their own vote bank within the community, irrespective of the party. These include Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate from Panaji, his wife Jennifer Monserrate from Taleigaon, Francisco Silviera from St Andre, Clasfasio Dias from Cuncolim and Antonio Fernandes from Santa Cruz seat.
CLAIMING PARRIKAR’S LEGACY
It will be the first time that the BJP is contesting in Goa with no Manohar Parrikar, the trouble shooter for the party and an acceptable face across the community. An experienced hand and a veteran leader accessible to all, he had friends across party lines. This was the reason, that despite getting 13 seats, the BJP formed the government in 2017. With his son, Utpalcontesting as an independent candidate, the BJP is claiming Parrikar’s political legacy in the state.
TMC, AAP GIVE HOPE TO BJP
According to BJP sources, there is a seat or two that the TMC and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will win. And there are some where they are eating into votes that may have otherwise going to the Congress. “It is good for us that we are having a muti-cornered fight. Had this been a direct contest with the Congress, it would have been tough to think about forming the government,” said a senior BJP leader.
Why is the BJP so hopeful? Many of the candidates who are contesting on various party symbols or as independents had been in the BJP or are “sympathetic” towards it.
MINING – AN ELECTORAL ISSUE
With a sizable population in at least six assembly constituencies affected directly and indirectly by the ban on mining in the state, the issue is set to decide the fate of many candidates. CM Pramod Sawant’s constituency, too, is affected by the issue and that is the reason the BJP is claiming it will begin mining within six months of coming to power.
The resumption of mining has become an emotive issue in the ongoing campaign for the February 14 Goa assembly polls. The ruling BJP, as well as the Congress and AAP have promised to restart mining of iron ore in the state.
The issue is a powerful one as political parties believe that over a lakh people depended on it when it was stopped in 2012, causing loss of livelihood to those families.
Bank employee, Ravindra Karande, is running a general store in Mangeshi village post retirement. With every political party making false promises, he has lost faith in politicians but has a strong opinion against freebies and the parties that are promising these freebies.
“Where does that money come from? How are people promising free electricity? Why do they have to make such promises? Are they giving it out of their own pockets? This should not be promoted. We are suffering from inflation with youngsters having no jobs. This is serious,” he said.
TROUBLESOME INDEPENDENTS, TURNCOATS
There are those who could not get a ticket from the BJP and are fighting as independents or with tickets from other parties. These candidates are causing stress to the BJP as a majority of the seats are likely to be closely contested and even a few hundred votes could change the result – be it Utpal Parrikar contesting against strongman Babush Monserrate, former CM Laxmikant Parsekar who is not pegged to be the one winning the seat, but is likely to hurt the BJP by eating into the votes, or Michael Lobo considered to be a strongman in Bardez and contesting from Calangute constituency. He has been on the target of the CM for being man who is ‘patni-bhakht’, as he left the party because his wife was denied the ticket.
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TOURISM INDUSTRY, COVID AND UNEMPLOYMENT
With Covid necessitated lockdowns and ban on international travel, the state that survives on tourism was hit badly. Many are still reeling under its effect. Tourism and allied industries resorted to retrenchment as there was no business.
“Those were bad days and even today normalcy hasn’t returned. I worked as a clerical staff with a company, but with Covid, my company terminated many of us. We had to sit at home and look for opportunities. On top of that, there is inflation. Life isn’t easy,” said Ekta, who now looks after her ailing mom while her father does garage work for trucks.
While the contest is different on every seat and there is no one opposition the BJP is contesting against, the result is tough to predict. Voters are hurt that the BJP formed the government despite the mandate to the Congress as the largest party. Tarendra, a cab driver, said, “What is the point of voting for those who can’t form the government? It’s all a game. However, voting is our right and we will use it.”
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