NEW DELHI: The prospect of a third Covid-19 wave appears remote only under “current circumstances” delta And its derivatives are in circulation as the main SARS-CoV-2 variants and the weekly caseload continues to fall, according to experts.
“We need to forget about the third wave for the time being. If it does emerge, it will be in the middle or last quarter of next year,” said Dr. T. Jakob john, Retired Professor and Head of the Department of Clinical Virology and Microbiology, Christian Medical College (Vellore). “The Covid pandemic in India has turned into an endemic phase,” he said.
Doctor Shashank Joshi, a member of the Maharashtra government’s Covid task force, said: “No one can predict the timing of the third wave. If any new form of worry emerges, it cannot be ruled out.”
John said that the seven-day moving average of Kovid cases has been below 50,000 for the last 16 weeks. It has been below 20,000 since October 9. John is also the ex-director of ICMR‘s advanced research center In Virology, observed in an online talk, ‘Is the pandemic over?’ on Tuesday. He cited calculations based on ‘reproduction numbers of the virus’, which showed that 450 million Indians were probably infected during the first wave and another 830 million during the second wave.
India’s vaccination coverage has not been good as compared to first world countries. “We can say that we have reached the endemic stage not because of vaccination but because of natural infection,” John said.
Reaching endemic is not the end of covid. “We are in the endemic phase for the long haul,” he said.
“There are areas which are seeing 300-500 cases daily for months and there is vaccination coverage. It is moving towards endemism,” Joshi said.
“We need to forget about the third wave for the time being. If it does emerge, it will be in the middle or last quarter of next year,” said Dr. T. Jakob john, Retired Professor and Head of the Department of Clinical Virology and Microbiology, Christian Medical College (Vellore). “The Covid pandemic in India has turned into an endemic phase,” he said.
Doctor Shashank Joshi, a member of the Maharashtra government’s Covid task force, said: “No one can predict the timing of the third wave. If any new form of worry emerges, it cannot be ruled out.”
John said that the seven-day moving average of Kovid cases has been below 50,000 for the last 16 weeks. It has been below 20,000 since October 9. John is also the ex-director of ICMR‘s advanced research center In Virology, observed in an online talk, ‘Is the pandemic over?’ on Tuesday. He cited calculations based on ‘reproduction numbers of the virus’, which showed that 450 million Indians were probably infected during the first wave and another 830 million during the second wave.
India’s vaccination coverage has not been good as compared to first world countries. “We can say that we have reached the endemic stage not because of vaccination but because of natural infection,” John said.
Reaching endemic is not the end of covid. “We are in the endemic phase for the long haul,” he said.
“There are areas which are seeing 300-500 cases daily for months and there is vaccination coverage. It is moving towards endemism,” Joshi said.
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